Polls and trolls

 

                                            Does this man get a vote?  Photo credit: Getty Images

With 19 electoral votes, 7% of the 270 needed for victory, Pennsylvania may be the key to today's Presidential election. Polls indicate that neither candidate -- former President Donald Trump for the Republicans, or Vice President Kamala Harris for the Democrats -- has a lead in the poll sample exceeding 1% or 2%, well within the statistical margin of error. The race is a dead heat. Moreover, national polls suggest that the percentage of likely voters who have yet to make up their minds about the candidates may be as low as 2%.

The Russians have good reason to try to influence undecided Pennsylvania voters. Trump has said repeatedly that if elected he could end the war between Russia and Ukraine in 24 hours. The only way that he could do so would be to threaten to cut off aid to Ukraine if it does not immediately concede Kremlin demands. At minimum, these demands would include a surrender of eastern Ukraine to the Russians and probably a decisive role in Ukrainian governance like the one enjoyed under President Victor Yanukovich before 2014. The Maidan Revolution then brought pro-Western leaders to Kiev. For Russian President Vladimir Putin, purchasing these concessions at the low cost of a sudden surge of social media disinformation in Pennsylvania, rather than through the prolonged expense of Iranian drones and of training North Korean troops, not to mention Russian draftees, would be like rubles from heaven.

The Russians have already launched this campaign. Last week, the FBI verified that a video purporting to show a poll worker destroying mail-in ballots for Trump was a Russian fake. The FBI wrote: "This Russian activity is part of Moscow’s broader effort to raise unfounded questions about the integrity of the US election and stoke divisions among Americans, as detailed in prior ODNI election updates." ODNI is the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency also affirms this position.

Without a counter-attack, the Russian blitz may well succeed. Suppose that Harris leads in Pennsylvania by 1%. Flipping the vote could be done cheaply by convincing Harris voters to go for Trump in about a half of a percentage point of the turnout. The 2020 Pennsylvania turnout in the Presidential election was 7 million. So .5% of this works out to 35,000 votes. Assume that 4% of the turnout is willing to vote for Trump rather than Harris if persuaded: This would include the 2% of undecided voters and a like amount of soft Harris voters. Then the election could be flipped if disinformation persuades one-eighth of the target voters, presumably young males with no college degree ( .005/,04 = .125). This sounds feasible to me. Of course, my calculations are crude.

Fake videos in the Russian Storm-1516 campaign have also appeared in Georgia, a swing state with 16 electoral votes. The state secretary of Georgia, Brad Raffensberger, asked Elon Musk, owner of X and a Trump supporter, a few days ago to remove fake Russian videos. Musk's response has not been reported. https://thehill.com/.../4965272-raffensperger-asks-x.../ After the 2020 election, Trump demanded that Raffensberger "find 11,780 votes" to enable him to claim victory in the Georgia electoral election. https://www.axios.com/.../trump-georgia-election... . Georgia indicted Trump in this matter.

A few hours ago, the FBI reported bomb threats to polling sites in several states, including Georgia, that “appear to originate from Russian email domains.” https://www.usatoday.com/.../georgia-bomb.../76068592007/ The FBI said the threats were not credible. The Russians may have been trying to suppress the last-minute vote, which tends to be poor and Democrat.

Another possibility: Storm-1516 targets not the casting of votes but the counting of them. Hence the fake video in Georgia of a poll worker destroying Trump ballots. Suspicions of vote miscounting may touch off calls for recounts and decertifications. Federal agencies say Russia and Iran are ramping up influence campaigns targeting US voters - The Washington Post This backtracking could make it hard for states to meet the Constitutional deadline for submitting the electoral vote to Congress. It could also spur violence in the days and weeks following the election if Trump does not concede. -- Leon Taylor, Seymour, Indiana USA, tayloralmaty@gmail.com

Notes

For useful comments, I thank but do not implicate Annabel Benson.

References

BBC Verify and BBC News. Olga Robinson, Shayan Sardarizadeh, and Mike Wendling.

FBI issues warning over two fake election videos . November 2, 2024.

After the endgame

                                      A repeat performance?  Photo credit: Stephanie Keith, Reuters 

The "little secret" that former President Donald Trump shares with House Speaker Mike Johnson is probably a second insurrection. Under Article 2, Section 1, of the Constitution, if the electoral Presidential vote November 5 is a tie, the election will go to the House of Representatives, where each state will have a vote. https://constitution.congress.gov/constitution/article-2/ A simple majority will win. At the moment, by my count on my fingers and toes, 28 states are Republican and 22 are Democrat, although that could change after Tuesday. https://www.270towin.com/ The second highest vote-getter will become Vice President. Kamala Harris could stay in that job, but under Trump!

An electoral tie of 269-269 is highly unlikely. Recalling January 6, 2021, I suspect that Trump has in mind popular pressure on the Senate to refuse the electoral results submitted by the states, if they favor Harris. But the Constitution clearly says the President of the Senate must count and accept the electoral votes from the states. She has no discretion in this duty. The last vice president understood that, at almost the expense of his neck. https://www.washingtonpost.com/.../94bd9478-9740-11ef... 

--Leon Taylor, Seymour, Indiana, tayloralmaty@gmail.com

Notes

This update corrects the calculation of an electoral tie, to 269-269.

A little pleasure reading

 

                      Louisiana's Mike Johnson: From the swamps and into The Swamps

                                          Photo credit: Jabin Botsford, The Washington Post
                                          

The Washington Post writes: "...[Former President Donald] Trump praised [House Speaker Mike] Johnson and suggested the two of them have a 'little secret' that will have 'a big impact' in House races.

"The comment renewed concern that Johnson would not certify the 2024 election results next year, a claim he has repeatedly denied in interviews, saying, elliptically, that he would certify any free and fair election."

It would be nice if national political reporters and, who knows, maybe even the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, could get acquainted with the Constitution. The President of the Senate, not the Speaker of the House, presides over the certification of the electoral Presidential votes received from the states, in the presence of the Senate and House. Article 2, Section 1, Clause 3.

And I have a question. Every story that I read in The Post about the Fall national elections draws heavily on the Cook Political Report. Why shouldn't I cancel my Post subscription and just read the Cook Report? -- Leon Taylor, Seymour, Indiana tayloralmaty@gmail.com

Notes

For useful comments, I thank but do not implicate Nicholas Baigent.

References

Marianna Sotomayor. Mike Johnson, who shares ‘secret’ with Trump, fights to keep the House - The Washington Post . November 1, 2024.

Running against Hitler

                                                      Not on the Democrat ticket                                                    

About Vice President Kamala Harris's run for the Presidency, The Wall Street Journal writes: "In a poll released this week, Blueprint found that messages centered on bringing down the cost of groceries and protecting Social Security and Medicare are most likely to persuade undecided voters.

"But the Harris campaign’s focus on what it sees as Trump’s threat to democracy isn’t necessarily a waste of time. Roth Smith [Blueprint analyst] said the message energizes Harris’s base and potentially draws in Republican or Republican-leaning voters who are skeptical of Trump. Blueprint estimates that 5% to 10% of the Republican coalition could be persuaded to vote for Harris."

That last sentence seems to say that calling Trump a fascist will peel off up to a tenth of Republicans. It is clearly an editor's error. Blueprint actually said this: "Plurality of swing state voters say Hitler comparison is good reason to vote against Trump, policy still better.....

"Harris cannot win with a message that is only about Trump's threat, as our swing state poll indicates that it is even more important for Harris to highlight her economic policies and Democratic home runs on Social Security and Medicare while letting the media focus on the danger of another Trump presidency."

Harris' decision to run on the Kelly quote, then, may backfire. It enables Trump to paint her as a wild-eyed radical liberal, as he did at Madison Square Gardens. I say this although I agree that Trump is a fascist, at least by the historical definition of someone who seeks to destroy political opponents with illegal or violent means.

Blueprint defined the "swing voter" as someone who was undecided about the Presidential candidates; or who had switched from one party to the other since 2020; or was an independent who either split votes between Democrats and Republicans or was favorable or unfavorable towards both candidates.

In the seven swing states, it interviewed 3,623 voters, 757 of whom were swing voters. "57% of all swing state voters have heard about Kelly's comments regarding Trump's admiration for dictators, with 47% considering it a good reason to vote against Trump--36% of whom say it is 'a very good reason to vote against Trump'....33% of all voters say it is a bad reason to vote against Trump, and 20% don't know." [ https://blueprint2024.com ]

Games and gains

Note that although 47% of respondents think Kelly's remarks a good reason to vote against Trump, 33% say it is a bad reason. It is possible that by running on the remarks, Harris will drive towards Trump almost as many votes as she gains.

The maximum net gain is 14% (47% - 33%), about one of seven undecided voters. But the respondents valued policy more than the Kelly remarks. So the maximum net gain due to the Kelly remarks is no more than 6%. Moreover, not all undecided voters will vote. Perhaps half will. The maximum net gain from campaigning on Kelly's remarks is down to 3% of undecided voters in swing states. And my calculations assume no strategic response by Trump. So Harris might well lose votes on net if she emphasizes the "fascist" remarks.

And I have not even taken into account the margin of error. That 47% of the sample considered a vote against Trump need not mean that 47% of all undecided voters will. Blueprint said the margin of error was +/- 1.9%. It did not explain how it came up with the same margin of error for subsamples of various sizes. As a rule, the margin of error is larger for smaller samples because they contain less information. Running against Adolph has its complications. -- Leon Taylor, Seymour, Indiana USA tayloralmaty@gmail.com

Notes

For useful comments, I thank but do not implicate Annabel Benson.

References

https://www.wsj.com/.../kamala-harris-ellipse-speech...

Chatting with "Ann"

 

                                                            Photo credit: Facebook

ANN: Hi, dear. Could you do me a little favor please? And if you don’t mind, dear.

TAYLOR: What is the favor?

ANN: I’m a bit tight on cash this week and could really use some help with groceries for the weekend. Any chance you could assist? I hate to ask, but it would mean a lot to me, I promise I won’t spend it on anything crazy, but I could really use some help with my grocery bill and I’d also love to treat myself to a nice dinner this weekend. Would it be possible for you to pitch in a bit? I’d really appreciate it.

TAYLOR: No, sorry. No money for someone I haven't met. I know that you're honest, but the Internet is so rife with fraud that we have to apply the same rules to everyone. This is especially in your own interest, because those on foreign deployment are especially vulnerable to scams. Congress approved a salary increase for the military for fiscal 2025. I don't know your pay cycle, but you may receive the increase at the end of this month. It's not as much as you deserve. Staff sergeants are poorly paid, I know. But if you have an account at the Armed Forces Bank in Seoul, you can use the pay increase to get a credit card. [Actually, there is no Armed Forces Bank in Seoul. As people in the US armed forces know, most branches of the AFB are on the mainland. OK, it was a trap. So sue me, if you don't mind standing in line.] That will cover the dinner that indeed you should indulge in for relaxation. And WIC can help with your grocery bill. I do appreciate your thinking of me.

ANN: I completely understand where you’re coming from, and I appreciate your honesty. Just to share openly with you, my account always gets put on restriction whenever I’m deployed overseas due to security reasons, especially after some theft issues in the past. Right now, I can’t access my account, even though my salary is being paid into it. I won’t be able to access it until I’m back home.

I know how things are on the Internet these days, and I understand why it’s important to be cautious. This might sound a bit unusual, especially since we’ve just met, but I feel a strong connection between us, which is why I’m comfortable being open with you about my challenges here.

The military meals aren’t always the best, and sometimes I like to treat myself to something better. But getting certain things here has been tough unless a friend or colleague helps out. That’s why I felt comfortable trusting you with this. I completely understand if you’re not comfortable with it, and I appreciate your understanding either way, dear.

I appreciate you looking out for me, baby. Right now, I get paid about $3,654 per month as my salary. The increase will definitely help when it comes through, but until then, things can get a bit tight, especially while deployed. Unfortunately, with my account being restricted while I’m overseas, it’s hard to access anything until I’m back home. I truly would appreciate your understanding and care it could mean a lot to me.

TAYLOR: Just open an account at AFB in Seoul.

ANN: I’ve tried several times, but I’m being asked to provide information that isn’t available to me here. To avoid delays, I’ve been using BTC [bitcoins] as my only option to receive funds while on deployment. I tried opening an account at AFB in Seoul to streamline things, but it still won’t let me. No problem if you’re not interested in helping out. I’ve tried several options and still feel helpless, which is why I’m reaching out to you for help. But either way, anything you can do would be greatly appreciated.

My pay is solid, and I’m doing well financially overall, but being overseas brings its own challenges, especially with accessing my funds. My bank places restrictions on my account when I’m deployed due to past experiences, so while my money is safe, it’s just hard to reach right now. If you could help me out with some groceries, I’d gladly refund you as soon as possible. You’d be my superhero for life.

TAYLOR: That's strange. I didn't think that AFB had a branch in Seoul. Neither does the military normally restrict access to home banking accounts. Maybe you should talk to your CO.

ANN: Ok. Thank you for your care. I understand it sounds unusual. The account issue seems to be more about the policies of my specific bank and past experiences while on deployment. AFB isn’t available here but there is SAB [Saudi-Arabian British Bank. It isn’t in Seoul, either. Neither are the Marines, for that matter] which was the one I tried opened an account with before but still won’t let me. SAB here, not AFB. If you're not comfortable helping, it's totally fine. I understand you're just being careful. I’ve tried several times to get money out of my account, but it still won’t let me while I'm here, which is why I reached out to you for help to get by this weekend. Talking to my CO? I’ve done that several times, but they have no responsibility for my personal financial situation. Thanks for considering it either way.

[Later]. ANN: Good evening, my dear. How are your assignments and projects been going so far, handsome?

And if you don’t mind, dear, could you pls help me buy a gift card from the nearby store there while you’re out and about today?

I’m really having some challenges here and I feel so helpless. Could you possibly get a Razer Gold gift card or an Apple card of $100 for me today? Either one would be really helpful, dear. Anything you can do today would mean a lot.

Dear, I hope I’m not being too much of a bother. I feel so helpless right now and just need someone to reach out to. I consider you a friend and feel comfortable sharing everything with you. I trust that you can help me in this moment, and I promise to make it right for you.

[Later] ANN: I’m not sure how this will come across, dear, but I want you to know that I really need the card for my phone to stay connected and cover my phone and router expense, while I’m here in South Korea. It’s just the easy way for me to manage things online

Please if you can conveniently walk into a store there and assist me with it, I’d really appreciate it, dear. Let me know if it’s possible.

Ps any new picture of you today? I took several pictures and sent to you when I was about to leave work this evening. Hope you like it?

TAYLOR: I could write your CO to ask him or her to help you. You are at Camp Humphreys in Seoul? [Humphreys is actually in Pyeongtak, 65 kilometers from Seoul. So sue me again.]

ANN: You don’t need to do that, dear. I can handle all of that myself. OK. What do you want to write to the CO about? I know my way around here, hun, and I understand the right thing to do at the right time. I appreciate your concern. I’m a Navy nurse assigned to support a Marine Corps unit. I’m not typically embedded with Marines in combat roles; instead, we provide medical support at hospitals or medical facilities where Marines are stationed. That’s my main assignment here in Korea, so there’s really nothing you can do by writing to the CO. If you can help me with the card from there, that’s fine. Please don’t worry about the groceries or weekend dinner; I just wanted to share how I feel with you. The idea of reaching out to the CO sounds funny to me, and you really don’t need to do that. Thank you.

[Later]. ANN: Hello dear. Pls I may need you to assist me with the card because I’m currently in South Korea and can’t find it anywhere around here due to regional unavailability. As I mentioned earlier, I haven’t had a chance to get the card since I've been here. The cards aren't that expensive, so if you're not comfortable with it, I completely understand. I just use it to get credit for online services and digital content while I’m still here, and to access streaming platforms for movies, music, and online games to relax in my free time. It's just the best way for me to manage things online and keep everything running smoothly. I don’t require that much, even a little amount would be greatly appreciated.

Are you there?

Dear, and I want you to know that no matter what you write to my CO asking for help, it won’t change anything because, regardless of how you view this, you still have much more access to resources than I do here. -- Leon Taylor, Seymour, Indiana tayloralmaty@gmail.com

Notes: For useful comments, I thank but do not implicate Mark Kennet and Barry Lenk.

ll reactio

Fibbers of the Fourth Estate

 

                                           Patrick Soon-Shiong: Is a newspaper a $500 million toy? 

                                           Photo credit: David Paul Morris, Bloomberg 

The Wall Street Journal writes: "Donald Trump has opened a narrow lead in the presidential race....." In the next paragraph, the newspaper notes that Trump's lead is "within the poll['s] margi[n] of error, meaning that either candidate could actually be ahead."

The Journal is lying. It knows full well that the race is too close to call. A poll is only a sample, subject to error. One cannot ignore errors that may exceed the estimated margin of victory.

The Journal also knows that most readers don't understand the margin of error, especially when it won't explain this simple statistical concept in the main story. So The Journal can safely assume that readers will ignore its weasel words in the second paragraph as just some confusing nonsense. The Journal has its Presidential cake and eats it, too. Most readers will accept its lie that Trump is winning. If any reader challenges this, it can always point to the weasel words.

Political pros who should know better argue to me that this lying really doesn't matter. After all, we're just talking about a couple of percentage points between the candidates. Well, it matters a hell of a lot if The CBS Evening News leads with "New polls show that the White House race is a dead heat" or with "New polls show that Trump leads."

The Journal, The Washington Post, and The New York Times -- and therefore the news media in general -- have lied about the Presidential polls throughout the race, by ignoring the margin of error. Probably this is because "It's a close race" is not as thrilling a headline as "X is winning." But I cannot dismiss the possibility that the reporters, editors, or executives of the newspaper skew the headlines in favor of their candidate. At The Los Angeles Times, the editor of editorials resigned a few days ago because the owner, Patrick Soon-Shiong, refused to let the newspaper endorse a Presidential candidate. It is a small step from interfering in a newspaper's editorials to interfering with its headlines, although I have no evidence of such headline-management.

One major story in this tight race is how the media's fibbing with statistics has affected the donations, strategizing, and voter choices that will determine the wee hours of November 6. One thing for sure: We won't read that story in The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, or The New York Times. -- Leon Taylor, Seymour, Indiana, tayloralmaty@gmail.com

References

Katie Robertson. L.A. Times Editorial Chief Quits After Owner Blocks Harris Endorsement - The New York Times .  October 23, 2024. 

Aaron Zitner. Exclusive | Trump Takes Narrow Lead Over Harris in Closing Weeks of Race, WSJ Poll Shows - WSJ.  October 23, 2024.

Boys and girls together, not

 

                                                     Danny Lopez: Learning from The Donald

                                                    Photo credit: Danny Lopez for Indiana

Always something brewing in Indiana politics.

In the 39th State District, longtime Republican incumbent Jerry Torr won't run for re-election to the Statehouse. The Democrat candidate is Matt McNally, who got 48% of the vote when he ran against Torr two years ago.

The Republican candidate is Vice President of Community Affairs and Corporate Relations for the Indiana Pacers organization, Danny Lopez, basically a spokesman and a tenderfoot in politics. What's interesting is that Lopez opposes transgender boys in female sports. The Pacers, a professional male basketball team, want good relationships with the LGBTQ+ community and are between the ol' rock and hard place. They issued a non-endorsement endorsement of Lopez.

A Lopez ad features a Hoosier sweetheart right out of the pages of Booth Tarkington. Call her Katie. "I play volleyball for my school. I love being on the team with my girlfriends. If Matt McNally has his way, me and my friends will be taking turns on the bench."

Don't cry, Katie. In Indiana, transgender boys haven't been able to play in K-12 girls' sports for at least 12 years. Two years ago, the legislature banned such activity and over-rode Governor Eric Holcombs' veto. Before then, the Indiana High School Athletic Association had enforced a trans-youth policy for a decade. Not that it took much work: Only two transgender students had applied to play on teams, reported IndyStar.

Lopez is beating a dead mare. But a lot of people like to watch. In less than three months, Republicans have spent more than $65 million on ads attacking transgender-friendly policies, reports The New York Times. Asked last week in a Fox Town Hall what to do about transgender athletes in women's sports, Trump said it was "such an easy question": "You just ban it."

McNally's own TV ads attack Lopez for his "radical' opposition to "reproductive rights." This would play like a charm in New York. But welcome to the Hoosier State, where then-President Donald Trump beat now-President Joe Biden 57% to 41% in 2020. Trump need not break into a cold sweat about Indiana this year, either.

The 39th District is in Carmel, just north of Indianapolis (population 103,000): White (80%), affluent (78% home ownership rate, median household income $133,000), educated (74% college degree-holders), slightly female (52%). It might normally back reproductive rights like abortion, but McNally's Doomsday ads will backfire. Well, probably: There is no good political polling in this part of Indiana. And Trump took Hamilton County, where Carmel is, 52% to 45% in 2020. Don't touch that dial. -- Leon Taylor, Seymour, Indiana tayloralmaty@gmail.com

References

Caitlin Doombos. Trump pledges to end transgender athletes playing women's sports . New York Post. October 16, 2024.

Gregg Doyel. Indiana state rep candidate Danny Lopez's ad could hurt Pacers, Fever . IndyStar. October 15, 2024.

Shane Goldmacher. Trump and Republicans Bet Big on Anti-Trans Ads Across the Country - The New York Times . October 8, 2024.

Leslie Bonilla Mun~iz.  Checking out the key Indiana House races up for grabs this year – Inside INdiana Business . October 23, 2024.