Turkey President Erdogan: Who's manipulating whom?
Photo credit: Wikipedia
Analyses of Central Asian economies
Turkey President Erdogan: Who's manipulating whom?
Photo credit: Wikipedia
Does this man get a vote? Photo credit: Getty Images
With 19 electoral votes, 7% of the 270 needed for victory, Pennsylvania may be the key to today's Presidential election. Polls indicate that neither candidate -- former President Donald Trump for the Republicans, or Vice President Kamala Harris for the Democrats -- has a lead in the poll sample exceeding 1% or 2%, well within the statistical margin of error. The race is a dead heat. Moreover, national polls suggest that the percentage of likely voters who have yet to make up their minds about the candidates may be as low as 2%.
The "little secret" that former President Donald Trump shares with House Speaker Mike Johnson is probably a second insurrection. Under Article 2, Section 1, of the Constitution, if the electoral Presidential vote November 5 is a tie, the election will go to the House of Representatives, where each state will have a vote. https://constitution.congress.gov/constitution/article-2/ A simple majority will win. At the moment, by my count on my fingers and toes, 28 states are Republican and 22 are Democrat, although that could change after Tuesday. https://www.270towin.com/ The second highest vote-getter will become Vice President. Kamala Harris could stay in that job, but under Trump!
An electoral tie of 269-269 is highly unlikely. Recalling January 6, 2021, I suspect that Trump has in mind popular pressure on the Senate to refuse the electoral results submitted by the states, if they favor Harris. But the Constitution clearly says the President of the Senate must count and accept the electoral votes from the states. She has no discretion in this duty. The last vice president understood that, at almost the expense of his neck. https://www.washingtonpost.com/.../94bd9478-9740-11ef...
--Leon Taylor, Seymour, Indiana, tayloralmaty@gmail.com
Notes
This update corrects the calculation of an electoral tie, to 269-269.
Louisiana's Mike Johnson: From the swamps and into The Swamps
Photo credit: Jabin Botsford, The Washington Post
Photo credit: Facebook
Patrick Soon-Shiong: Is a newspaper a $500 million toy?
Photo credit: David Paul Morris, Bloomberg
The Wall Street Journal writes: "Donald Trump has opened a narrow lead in the presidential race....." In the next paragraph, the newspaper notes that Trump's lead is "within the poll['s] margi[n] of error, meaning that either candidate could actually be ahead."
The Journal is lying. It knows full well that the race is too close to call. A poll is only a sample, subject to error. One cannot ignore errors that may exceed the estimated margin of victory.
The Journal also knows that most readers don't understand the margin of error, especially when it won't explain this simple statistical concept in the main story. So The Journal can safely assume that readers will ignore its weasel words in the second paragraph as just some confusing nonsense. The Journal has its Presidential cake and eats it, too. Most readers will accept its lie that Trump is winning. If any reader challenges this, it can always point to the weasel words.
Political pros who should know better argue to me that this lying really doesn't matter. After all, we're just talking about a couple of percentage points between the candidates. Well, it matters a hell of a lot if The CBS Evening News leads with "New polls show that the White House race is a dead heat" or with "New polls show that Trump leads."
The Journal, The Washington Post, and The New York Times -- and therefore the news media in general -- have lied about the Presidential polls throughout the race, by ignoring the margin of error. Probably this is because "It's a close race" is not as thrilling a headline as "X is winning." But I cannot dismiss the possibility that the reporters, editors, or executives of the newspaper skew the headlines in favor of their candidate. At The Los Angeles Times, the editor of editorials resigned a few days ago because the owner, Patrick Soon-Shiong, refused to let the newspaper endorse a Presidential candidate. It is a small step from interfering in a newspaper's editorials to interfering with its headlines, although I have no evidence of such headline-management.
One major story in this tight race is how the media's fibbing with statistics has affected the donations, strategizing, and voter choices that will determine the wee hours of November 6. One thing for sure: We won't read that story in The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, or The New York Times. -- Leon Taylor, Seymour, Indiana, tayloralmaty@gmail.com
References
Katie Robertson. L.A. Times Editorial Chief Quits After Owner Blocks Harris Endorsement - The New York Times . October 23, 2024.
Aaron Zitner. Exclusive | Trump Takes Narrow Lead Over Harris in Closing Weeks of Race, WSJ Poll Shows - WSJ. October 23, 2024.