Russian President Vladimir Putin’s callup September 21
of 300,000 troops to salvage his war has spurred more draft-dodgers to flee the
country than fought in Ukraine when the war began in February. And more
Russians are fleeing to Kazakhstan than elsewhere—about 100,000. The border
between the two countries, the largest continuous border in the world, is 4,739
miles, or roughly one mile for every 21 immigrants. Lots of chances to sneak
across the border, especially when friends or kin wait on the other side.
Ties between ethnic Russians in Kazakhstan and the homeland
folks remain strong. The Russians dominated Kazakhstan politically and
culturally in the Soviet Union and remained the largest ethnic group in the
first years of independence, in the early 1990s. Although the Kazakhs are the largest ethnic
group today, because millions of Russians went back home, the Russian minority
is the second largest.
The past week’s immigration of Russians would almost
double the number in Kazakhstan. In
April, there were 130,000 Russian citizens there. The number of Russians
applying for permanent residence has been rising throughout Putin’s War but
until now has been small—1,055 in the first quarter of 2022. At the rate of 100,000 Russian immigrants per
week, Kazakhstan’s population of 19 million would rise by a fourth after a
year.
And the immigrants are welcome. Despite Putin’s
assurance that the conscription was confined to military veterans, British
intelligence said "the better off and well educated are over-represented
amongst those attempting to leave Russia."
It’s a brain drain, and Kazakhstan is only too glad to be on the
receiving end. Kazakhstan wants specialists in IT, petroleum engineering, and
finance, including bitcoin technology. And
the draft-dodgers’ fluency in Russian is an advantage in Kazakhstan, where that
language is the lingua franca in high-tech cities like Almaty. Kazakhstanis also have compassion for the
immigrants. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said they were in a hopeless
situation. Sort of like Putin.
In March, Putin disavowed a draft because he knew it would outrage Russians. That he has reneged so publicly suggests that he is one shove from the Kremlin exit.
News update: TengriNews has just reported that a Russian was robbed in Aktau, a city near the northeast Caspian Sea in western Kazakhstan. The apartment crime may elicit more sympathy for the Russian immigrants. LT, 8:46pm Baltimore time, October 2, 2022. Гражданина России ограбили в центре Актау: 03 октября 2022, 01:11 - новости на Tengrinews.kz
—Leon Taylor, Baltimore, tayloralmaty@gmail.com
References
Mia Jankowicz.
2022. The number of Russians fleeing the country to evade Putin's draft
is bigger than the original invasion force, UK intel says. Business Insider. September 29.
businessinsider.com
Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty. 2022. Number of Russian citizens applying for
permanent residence in Kazakhstan rising.
April 13. rferl.org
