Sunday, November 24, 2024

Honk if you love taxes




                                           Must congestion be as common as the common cold? 

                                    Photo credit: Adobe stock

 

With the New Year will come a new idea for New York City -- paying $9 to drive bravely into the maw of Manhattan. While grumbling. As The New York Times notes, two thirds of respondents in a Siena College survey of New York State opposed congestion pricing. US President-elect Donald Trump, in the ignorance to which he has become accustomed, called the congestion price “the most regressive tax known to womankind.”  Almaty residents may ask themselves whether they would back congestion pricing themselves.  Snow and high winds just two weeks ago snarled streets throughout the city of 3 million.   



Most New Yorkers oppose the congestion price because The New York Times has never explained it. The idea is that time is money. When I drive into New York at rush hour, I delay other motorists. I keep them from getting to work or dinner on time. If I would have to pay a toll for delaying them, I will probably go to the Big Apple instead before or after rush hour. Other motorists will thus get to the office or the turkey dinner on time. Congestion will disappear.

I will drive at rush hour only if I would benefit even after paying the toll. Ideally, the toll equals the cost that I impose on other drivers. If I am willing to pay the toll, then my own need must justify the rare congestion that I cause. Perhaps I was driving my pregnant wife to the hospital.

And, of course, the toll revenues pay for improvements that decongest.

In short, the congestion price benefits motorists in the short run and the long run. It's a reviled idea whose time has come.

But what about Trump's charge that the congestion price is a "regressive" tax on women? The President-elect, who managed to major in economics at Penn without learning anything, is fond of technical terms he doesn't understand. A tax is regressive if it claims a larger share of income or wealth of the poor than of the rich. (Income is what you make this year. Wealth is what you're worth.) The opposite is true of the congestion price. On average in the US, women are poorer than men. The median household headed by a woman has 55 cents of wealth for every dollar of wealth in the median household headed by a man. (The median household is the one that separates the richer half from the poorer half.) Women are more likely than men to ride the bus to work than to buy an expensive car and drive. Because they take the bus, they avoid the congestion toll. That tax is progressive: It claims a larger share of income or wealth of the rich than of the poor. Other things being the same as before, if we must have a tax, we'd surely prefer a progressive one.

A better example of a regressive tax on women would be a tariff of at least 20% on cheap Chinese toys that single mothers buy for their kids because they can't afford anything else. A tariff is a tax on foreign goods. The primary advocate of this tariff is the President-Elect. -- Leon Taylor, Seymour, Indiana tayloralmaty@gmail.com

References

Ana Hernandez Kent. Gender Wealth Gaps in the U.S. | St. Louis Fed . September 29, 2021.

Ana Ley.  NYC Congestion Pricing Plan Gets Federal Approval With Jan. 5 Start Date - The New York Times .  November 22, 2024.

Tengrinews.  Snowfall and heavy traffic jams: road situation in Almaty: 08 November 2024, 20:47 - news on Tengrinews.kz

Friday, November 8, 2024

The man in the mirror

 

                                           Turkey President Erdogan: Who's manipulating whom? 

                                                                 Photo credit: Wikipedia


Donald Trump's return to the White House will have, shall we say, interesting implications for the Middle East. Consider Trump's track record.
In October 2019, after a phone call with Turkey President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, then-President Trump pulled out US troops from northwestern and north central Syria so quickly that they didn't have time to destroy their assets. So the Russians moved into the US fort at Manbij free of rent.
The US was in the area to fight ISIS, largely through the Kurds, who are among the most effective military allies that the US has had in the Middle East. When Trump withdrew troops from this part of Syria, the Kurds were left without protection against Daesh (Arabic for ISIS) and Turkey. Istanbul was the enemy of Kurds because they had long agitated for independence in southern Turkey, notably through the terrorist Kurdistan Worker's Party (PKK). The Kurds in northern Syria deny links to the PKK, but the Turks are skeptical. For protection, the Kurds in northeast and north central Syria turned to Syrian President Bashar Assad, who had been fighting a civil war in the area since 2011. The US thus lost brave allies to one of its most implacable enemies.
Also because of the thoughtless American withdrawal, nearly 800 ISIS fighters and supporters escaped from detention at Ein Eissa.
The US still has roughly 300 troops in northeastern Syria, because an aide pointed out to Trump that they could secure Syrian oilfields in the area. Partly due to the reduced American presence in northern Syria, those troops were attacked nearly 100 times by Iranian-linked militias from October 2023 to the following February.

And ISIS has doubled its murderous attacks in Syria and Iraq, probably to show that it's still a terrorist outfit worthy of funding.
The Trump withdrawal had wider repercussions. Trump also cut back on resistance to Boko Harum, which enslaves children, in west Africa, and to Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb in the Sahel region. And the Europeans will certainly distance themselves from the not-so-new American President, whom they regard as impulsive, if not repulsive
There are indeed serious questions about Central Command in the Middle East. To what extent does the US wish to continue to fight terrorist groups there, most of them much reduced since 2022, rather than prepare for long-run confrontation with Russia and China?
But in light of what happened after one phone call in October 2019 with a manipulative deal-maker, one must ask whether Trump is capable of the subtle and complex analysis that the Middle East demands. -- Leon Taylor, Seymour, Indiana USA, tayloralmaty@gmail.com

Notes
For useful comments, I thank but do not implicate Mark Kennet and Barry Lenk.

References

Tuesday, November 5, 2024

Polls and trolls

 

                                            Does this man get a vote?  Photo credit: Getty Images

With 19 electoral votes, 7% of the 270 needed for victory, Pennsylvania may be the key to today's Presidential election. Polls indicate that neither candidate -- former President Donald Trump for the Republicans, or Vice President Kamala Harris for the Democrats -- has a lead in the poll sample exceeding 1% or 2%, well within the statistical margin of error. The race is a dead heat. Moreover, national polls suggest that the percentage of likely voters who have yet to make up their minds about the candidates may be as low as 2%.

The Russians have good reason to try to influence undecided Pennsylvania voters. Trump has said repeatedly that if elected he could end the war between Russia and Ukraine in 24 hours. The only way that he could do so would be to threaten to cut off aid to Ukraine if it does not immediately concede Kremlin demands. At minimum, these demands would include a surrender of eastern Ukraine to the Russians and probably a decisive role in Ukrainian governance like the one enjoyed under President Victor Yanukovich before 2014. The Maidan Revolution then brought pro-Western leaders to Kiev. For Russian President Vladimir Putin, purchasing these concessions at the low cost of a sudden surge of social media disinformation in Pennsylvania, rather than through the prolonged expense of Iranian drones and of training North Korean troops, not to mention Russian draftees, would be like rubles from heaven.
The Russians have already launched this campaign. Last week, the FBI verified that a video purporting to show a poll worker destroying mail-in ballots for Trump was a Russian fake. The FBI wrote: "This Russian activity is part of Moscow’s broader effort to raise unfounded questions about the integrity of the US election and stoke divisions among Americans, as detailed in prior ODNI election updates." ODNI is the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency also affirms this position.
Without a counter-attack, the Russian blitz may well succeed. Suppose that Harris leads in Pennsylvania by 1%. Flipping the vote could be done cheaply by convincing Harris voters to go for Trump in about a half of a percentage point of the turnout. The 2020 Pennsylvania turnout in the Presidential election was 7 million. So .5% of this works out to 35,000 votes. Assume that 4% of the turnout is willing to vote for Trump rather than Harris if persuaded: This would include the 2% of undecided voters and a like amount of soft Harris voters. Then the election could be flipped if disinformation persuades one-eighth of the target voters, presumably young males with no college degree ( .005/,04 = .125). This sounds feasible to me. Of course, my calculations are crude.
Fake videos in the Russian Storm-1516 campaign have also appeared in Georgia, a swing state with 16 electoral votes. The state secretary of Georgia, Brad Raffensberger, asked Elon Musk, owner of X and a Trump supporter, a few days ago to remove fake Russian videos. Musk's response has not been reported. https://thehill.com/.../4965272-raffensperger-asks-x.../ After the 2020 election, Trump demanded that Raffensberger "find 11,780 votes" to enable him to claim victory in the Georgia electoral election. https://www.axios.com/.../trump-georgia-election... . Georgia indicted Trump in this matter.
A few hours ago, the FBI reported bomb threats to polling sites in several states, including Georgia, that “appear to originate from Russian email domains.” https://www.usatoday.com/.../georgia-bomb.../76068592007/ The FBI said the threats were not credible. The Russians may have been trying to suppress the last-minute vote, which tends to be poor and Democrat.

Another possibility: Storm-1516 targets not the casting of votes but the counting of them. Hence the fake video in Georgia of a poll worker destroying Trump ballots. Suspicions of vote miscounting may touch off calls for recounts and decertifications. Federal agencies say Russia and Iran are ramping up influence campaigns targeting US voters - The Washington Post This backtracking could make it hard for states to meet the Constitutional deadline for submitting the electoral vote to Congress. It could also spur violence in the days and weeks following the election if Trump does not concede. -- Leon Taylor, Seymour, Indiana USA, tayloralmaty@gmail.com

Notes

For useful comments, I thank but do not implicate Annabel Benson.

References

BBC Verify and BBC News. Olga Robinson, Shayan Sardarizadeh, and Mike Wendling.

Monday, November 4, 2024

After the endgame



                                      A repeat performance?  Photo credit: Stephanie Keith, Reuters 

The "little secret" that former President Donald Trump shares with House Speaker Mike Johnson is probably a second insurrection. Under Article 2, Section 1, of the Constitution, if the electoral Presidential vote November 5 is a tie, the election will go to the House of Representatives, where each state will have a vote. https://constitution.congress.gov/constitution/article-2/ A simple majority will win. At the moment, by my count on my fingers and toes, 28 states are Republican and 22 are Democrat, although that could change after Tuesday. https://www.270towin.com/ The second highest vote-getter will become Vice President. Kamala Harris could stay in that job, but under Trump!

An electoral tie of 269-269 is highly unlikely. Recalling January 6, 2021, I suspect that Trump has in mind popular pressure on the Senate to refuse the electoral results submitted by the states, if they favor Harris. But the Constitution clearly says the President of the Senate must count and accept the electoral votes from the states. She has no discretion in this duty. The last vice president understood that, at almost the expense of his neck. https://www.washingtonpost.com/.../94bd9478-9740-11ef... 

--Leon Taylor, Seymour, Indiana, tayloralmaty@gmail.com

Notes

This update corrects the calculation of an electoral tie, to 269-269.

A little pleasure reading

 

                      Louisiana's Mike Johnson: From the swamps and into The Swamps

                                          Photo credit: Jabin Botsford, The Washington Post
                                          


The Washington Post writes: "...[Former President Donald] Trump praised [House Speaker Mike] Johnson and suggested the two of them have a 'little secret' that will have 'a big impact' in House races.
"The comment renewed concern that Johnson would not certify the 2024 election results next year, a claim he has repeatedly denied in interviews, saying, elliptically, that he would certify any free and fair election."
It would be nice if national political reporters and, who knows, maybe even the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, could get acquainted with the Constitution. The President of the Senate, not the Speaker of the House, presides over the certification of the electoral Presidential votes received from the states, in the presence of the Senate and House. Article 2, Section 1, Clause 3.
And I have a question. Every story that I read in The Post about the Fall national elections draws heavily on the Cook Political Report. Why shouldn't I cancel my Post subscription and just read the Cook Report? -- Leon Taylor, Seymour, Indiana tayloralmaty@gmail.com

Notes

For useful comments, I thank but do not implicate Nicholas Baigent.

References