The beauty contest of nations

In which country could you produce the most?  The usual answer converts the income per capita of each nation into US dollars, using the current exchange rate. Countries with high income are assumed to be highly productive.  But exchange rates change for reasons that may have nothing to do with the power to produce. For example, the tenge may weaken because the National Bank of Kazakhstan doesn’t have enough dollars to defend it.  “Purchasing power parity” solves this problem by focusing on real changes in income (that is, physical changes, like the number of cars in a household) rather than nominal changes (monetary changes, like the number of tenge awash in the economy).  You aren’t interested per se in the number of tenge in your wallet, only in the number of mushroom cheeseburgers that the money will buy.

The list below uses purchasing power parity to express 2019 income per capita of 194 nations or regions in 2017 international dollars.  This is a dollar that can buy the same amount (say, a burger) everywhere, so it measures real income. Using the 2017 dollar corrects for inflation—the average increase in prices—which is another nominal change that does not interest us directly.  I’ve calculated income for 2019 because this was the most recent “normal” year. (Hello, Covid-19.) The figures are from the World Development Indicators of the World Bank (worldbank.org).

The list astonishes. The United States is only the tenth most affluent nation. Two regions of China, Macao and Hong Kong, are in the top 11. Japan ranks only 32^nd; Israel, 38^th.  The income spread is striking. Macao residents are the richest, with an average income of $116,321; Burundi residents are the poorest, at $754. Not every nation is a beauty in the beauty contest of nations.  –Leon Taylor, Baltimore, tayloralmaty@gmail.com

 

Country	Income	Rank
Macao SAR, China	116321	1
Qatar	87862	2
Bermuda	82611	3
Luxembourg	76019	4
United Arab Emirates	68591	5
Switzerland	68433	6
Ireland	67253	7
Norway	66504	8
Brunei Darussalam	63964	9
United States	63615	10
Hong Kong SAR, China	62564	11
North America	62061	12
Denmark	58650	13
Kuwait	57350	14
Netherlands	57039	15
Germany	55565	16
Austria	55323	17
Sweden	54234	18
Belgium	52419	19
High income	50189	20
Post-demographic dividend	49456	21
Finland	48852	22
Australia	48536	23
Canada	48455	24
Saudi Arabia	47527	25
Euro area	47268	26
United Kingdom	47252	27
France	46963	28
European Union	44390	29
OECD members	43978	30
Italy	43156	31
Japan	43059	32
Bahrain	42661	33
New Zealand	42387	34
Malta	42009	35
Korea, Rep.	41594	36
Spain	40724	37
Israel	40634	38
Cyprus	39568	39
Czech Republic	38506	40
Slovenia	38440	41
Lithuania	35705	42
Estonia	35539	43
Bahamas, The	34790	44
Portugal	34079	45
Europe & Central Asia	33735	46
Poland	31823	47
Central Europe and the Baltics	31543	48
Hungary	31464	49
Slovak Republic	31113	50
Latvia	31059	51
Romania	29442	52
Panama	29342	53
Croatia	29306	54
Greece	29103	55
Oman	29071	56
Malaysia	27603	57
Russian Federation	26526	58
Mauritius	25501	59
Chile	24010	60
Puerto Rico	23605	61
Kazakhstan	22787	62
Bulgaria	22591	63
Europe & Central Asia (IDA & IBRD countries)	22447	64
Uruguay	21917	65
Montenegro	21773	66
Argentina	21196	67
Europe & Central Asia (excluding high income)	21093	68
Costa Rica	19661	69
Mexico	19097	70
Belarus	18703	71
Maldives	17711	72
Dominican Republic	17573	73
Serbia	17312	74
East Asia & Pacific	17172	75
Late-demographic dividend	16703	76
Upper middle income	16645	77
World	16578	78
Middle East & North Africa	16483	79
North Macedonia	15981	80
China	15934	81
Botswana	15538	82
Latin America & Caribbean	15486	83
Latin America & the Caribbean (IDA & IBRD countries)	15451	84
Latin America & Caribbean (excluding high income)	14875	85
Bosnia and Herzegovina	14850	86
Georgia	14314	87
Brazil	14289	88
Colombia	14251	89
Arab World	14157	90
Lebanon	14067	91
East Asia & Pacific (IDA & IBRD countries)	14053	92
East Asia & Pacific (excluding high income)	13898	93
Armenia	13848	94
Moldova	13708	95
Equatorial Guinea	13553	96
Albania	13482	97
South Africa	13441	98
IBRD only	13077	99
Gabon	13062	100
Guyana	12975	101
Ukraine	12964	102
Sri Lanka	12700	103
Peru	12398	104
Paraguay	12246	105
Kosovo	11577	106
Indonesia	11454	107
Egypt, Arab Rep.	11336	108
Middle income	11324	109
Algeria	11242	110
Mongolia	11104	111
Tunisia	11081	112
Ecuador	11034	113
Iraq	10824	114
Middle East & North Africa (IDA & IBRD countries)	10815	115
Bhutan	10792	116
Middle East & North Africa (excluding high income)	10771	117
IDA & IBRD total	10684	118
Low & middle income	10345	119
Jordan	10073	120
Philippines	9789	121
Early-demographic dividend	9571	122
Namibia	9563	123
Jamaica	9502	124
Bolivia	8543	125
Guatemala	8495	126
El Salvador	8339	127
Eswatini	7805	128
Morocco	7398	129
West Bank and Gaza	7356	130
Lower middle income	7216	131
Cabo Verde	7020	132
Tonga	6903	133
India	6626	134
Belize	6576	135
South Asia	6333	136
South Asia (IDA & IBRD)	6333	137
Angola	6021	138
Bangladesh	5775	139
Ghana	5307	140
Honduras	5290	141
Mauritania	5277	142
Nicaragua	5256	143
Pakistan	5224	144
Djibouti	5099	145
Cote d'Ivoire	5075	146
IDA blend	5050	147
Nigeria	4971	148
Marshall Islands	4956	149
Timor-Leste	4865	150
Kyrgyz Republic	4757	151
Myanmar	4582	152
Fragile and conflict affected situations	4573	153
Kenya	4388	154
Cambodia	4123	155
Africa Western and Central	4005	156
Nepal	3994	157
Sudan	3910	158
IDA total	3820	159
Sub-Saharan Africa	3725	160
Sub-Saharan Africa (IDA & IBRD countries)	3725	161
Sub-Saharan Africa (excluding high income)	3722	162
Cameroon	3662	163
Africa Eastern and Southern	3543	164
Vanuatu	3419	165
Pre-demographic dividend	3378	166
Senegal	3281	167
Benin	3254	168
IDA only	3210	169
Least developed countries: UN classification	3118	170
Haiti	3084	171
Lesotho	3028	172
Comoros	2992	173
Congo, Rep.	2974	174
Solomon Islands	2631	175
Heavily indebted poor countries (HIPC)	2503	176
Guinea	2436	177
Mali	2230	178
Ethiopia	2205	179
Gambia, The	2189	180
Rwanda	2154	181
Togo	2128	182
Uganda	2125	183
Burkina Faso	2055	184
Low income	1986	185
Guinea-Bissau	1980	186
Sierra Leone	1684	187
Madagascar	1567	188
Chad	1555	189
Niger	1279	190
Mozambique	1262	191
Congo, Dem. Rep.	1064	192
Central African Republic	1023	193
Burundi	754	194

 An earlier version appeared on centralasianeconomy.wordpress.com in early August 2022.

 

 

The tenge blues

 

About the growing conflict between Kazakhstan and Russia, my savvy old colleague from Tulane, the econometrician Mark Kennet, has an insight: “Around the world, there is constant friction between politics and economics, with governments following the path of least resistance. This is no exception. Kazakhstan is landlocked, and depends on Russia to make its economy go; thus, rightly or wrongly, whatever the government says publicly, it is inextricably tied to Russia.”

Yes, Kazakhstan is landlocked from oceans, although of course it does border the Caspian Sea in the west. The largest oil fields in Kazakhstan are Caspian.

In addition to geography, culture binds Russia and Kazakhstan.  The Russians have been in Kazakhstan since the 18th century, not always with Kazakhstani approval. In Soviet times, ethnic Russians dominated the government and the population, outnumbering the ethnic Kazakhs.  When Kazakhstan became independent in 1991, the ethnic Russians struggled with the ethnic Kazakhs for power.  The latter won, and hundreds of thousands of ethnic Russians emigrated to their homeland.  Today the Kazakhs are the largest ethnic group in Kazakhstan.

Mild ethnic tensions linger, largely over the languages. In Almaty, the lingua franca is Russian; in rural areas, it’s Kazakh.  The official language is Kazakh, which many ethnic Russians don’t speak. At KIMEP, an international university, virtually all students speak Russian; but only a much smaller number, I would say, are fluent in Kazakh.

The Russian and Kazakhstani economies are similar.  Both emphasize oil exports and nurture state-directed enterprises. In a panel study of the two countries over a recent 15-year period, explaining real income per capita and controlling for oil prices and industrialization, a dummy variable for Kazakhstan is statistically insignificant. In other words, the unique characteristics of Kazakhstan don’t enable it to out-produce Russia.

Finally, both countries belong to the Eurasian Economic Union, which the Kremlin dominates. 

But the importance of trade to Kazakhstan is decreasing, giving way to domestic services. Exports in 2019 amounted to 30% of GDP; in 2008, 57%. 

And Russia no longer dominates Kazakhstani trade. Russia buys a tenth of Kazakhstan’s exports; China and Italy buy more. Russia does dominate world sales to Kazakhstan; it accounts for 37%, more than twice China’s share.  Since two-thirds of Kazakhstan’s imports are capital goods, you could argue that by stabilizing the exchange rate of tenge for a ruble, the National Bank was making life more predictable for Kazakhstani manufacturers. Or you could argue that the Bank held steady that exchange rate simply because that was what it had always done.   

So decoupling would be difficult, but the question is whether Kazakhstan should try anyway. At the moment, the Kremlin can punish Kazakhstan for political incorrectness.  The main pipeline for Kazakhstan’s oil exports, the product of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, runs through Russia, and the Russian courts this summer briefly banished Kazakhstani oil from the CPC pipeline for allegedly environmental reasons.  Coincidentally enough, these bans occurred right after Kazakhstani President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev criticized Putin’s War.

In self-defense, Kazakhstan is shifting oil to a pipeline running east from the Caspian Sea to China. Another pipeline runs to Baku, in Azerbaijan, west of the Caspian Sea, but it is probably too small for Kazakhstan to rely on. So it looks like Kazakhstan might decouple from Russia a bit by coupling with China.  

This has a political cost, because the Kazakhstani on the street is more suspicious of the Chinese than of the Russians.  Maybe he prefers the devil he knows to the one he doesn’t. For example, about six years ago, the Chinese began leasing farms in Kazakhstan. The domestic protest was so strong that Astana declared a moratorium on such leases in 2017.  Last year, Tokayev signed a bill banning sales or leases of farmland to foreigners. –Leon Taylor, Baltimore tayloralmaty@gmail.com

 

Note

Most of these trade figures are from the World Integrated Trade Solution at the World Bank. WITS is a useful resource. 

 

Good reading

Catherine Putz. Kazakhstan bans sale of agricultural land to foreigners.  The Diplomat. May 18, 2021.