The midnight stomp

This weekend’s ceasefire pact in Ukraine led to last-minute fighting that may destroy the value of the eventual cessation.  This is no surprise.  Russia and Ukraine (plus Western allies) are stuck in the vicious game known as Prisoner’s Dilemma.

Each side can choose between two actions: To observe an early peace, or to continue fighting until the ceasefire.  Think of the game from Ukraine’s point-of-view.  If Russia keeps fighting, then Ukraine cannot gain by rolling over and playing dead, so it will continue combat, too.  If instead Russia lays down arms, then Ukraine can gain ground in the east by battle.  Thus, no matter what Russia does, Ukraine will fight.

A similar analysis holds true for the Kremlin: It will deploy arms regardless of what Ukraine does.  Although a general peace would benefit all, neither side will resort to it unless it believes that it will be heavily penalized should it wage war instead.  Judging from news accounts, the ceasefire agreement provided no such penalty.  –Leon Taylor tayloralmaty@gmail.com

Reference

Andrew E. Kramer.  Ukraine cease-fire goes into effect, but rebel leader in key town repudiates accord.  New York Times.  Feb. 14, 2015.