The tensions this week in the north and south of Syria show off its eternally Byzantine politics.
In the southwestern city of Suwayda, hundreds of the Druze
continued to call for the overthrow of President Bashar Assad, as they have for
more than two weeks. They ripped up posters of his father and preceding
president, replacing them with posters of nationalist leaders who revolted early
in the 20th century against the French masters of the colony. This protest has
the blessing of the spiritual leader of the Druze, Sheikh Hikmat al-Hidjiri. Earlier,
some spiritual leaders had been careful not to endorse Assad’s overthrow.
A tiny but educated minority in Syria, most of the Druze had
stayed out of the civil war in exchange for exemption from military services. Now
they’re in the thick of the nationwide protest. It began with demonstrations
against a sudden near-250% increase in fuel prices in August. But it now invokes
the calls for democracy that led to the civil war in 2011, during the Arab Spring.
Even Assad’s sect, the Alawites, the core of his military and political
support, is stirring.
The fighting in northwestern Syria is probably a typical
feint. First, some background.
Turkey
wants a buffer in Syria to keep terrorist Kurds from establishing a base for
attacks on Turkey and to keep out Syrian migrants. In 2019, the US had agreed
to patrol the northwest and eject the Turkish terrorists, the YPG (the People’s
Protection Units, if you really want to know). But President Donald Trump got
cold feet, his chronic condition in foreign policy. So the US withdrew to the oilfields in the
northeast, allegedly to protect them from the Islamic State. The US Army left
the northwest to its Kurdish allies, the Syrian Democratic Forces. These are
not associated with the YPG.
But in
reality, the northwest is controlled by Turkish troops and by Hayat Tahrir
al-Sham, whose leader was a power in al-Qaeda but now claims to be a Syrian
nationalist.
The
Syrians in Afrin a northwestern city, are divided between the Turkish troops
and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham for religious reasons. (Some regard the HTS as
blasphemous because it doesn't adhere to Sharia law.) They have been fighting
each other.
The
Syrian Democratic Forces attacked these factions...reportedly backed by
munitions from Damascus! The Syrian Democratic Forces are supposed to be
leading the charge against
Damascus. At least 13 died in the fighting.
Well,
some things are clear. Damascus gains from these attacks, because they push out
the Turks and make room for Assad to move in. Iran also gains, because anything
that extends Assad's influence also extends Tehran's. So I would wonder if the
munitions backing the attack of the Syrian Democratic Forces on the Afrin
factions really came from Tehran. I don't think that Damascus has much control
over its army these days, aside from the unit controlled by Assad’s brother
that is busy making Captogan, the “poor man’s cocaine,” for fun and family
profit.
The
other thing that's clear is that the US is out to lunch. The Syrian Democratic
Forces are supposed to work for the Americans, not subvert their interests, as
they have been in deadly attacks for two weeks.
I
don't know who's making American policy for Syria these days -- State, Defense,
or Central Command. But whoever it is, it isn't working. And the White House has
washed its hands of the mess.
Elsewhere in the region, the US is practicing with Saudi
Arabia shooting down drones. And it's talking about a system for all of Central
Command, so I guess it worries about potential Iranian drone attacks on the US
Army in Syria, not to mention on Israel.
Iranian
officials were at the Kremlin a few days ago. I presume that they compared
notes on the performance of Iranian drones in Ukraine.
The
head of Central Command, General Erik Kurilla, told the House in March that
Iran was stronger in offensive weapons than five years ago, despite the ongoing
talks to relax sanctions on Tehran in exchange for a supposed commitment not to
develop nukes.
It
looks like Iran is filling the power vacuum created by the reduction of US
troops in the Middle East to 30,000 to fight China instead. Israel won't be shy
to step up to bat, given US aid. (And where are the Republicans?)
Now Assad
is heading to Beijing. Apparently, as Russia concentrates on its war on Ukraine,
China will fill its shoes as Assad’s ally. China certainly has enough dollars
to give the Syrian central bank to prop up the vanishing Syrian pound as well
as to rebuild much of the country’s infrastructure, which has been destroyed by
war and neglect. This all fits China’s strategy to extend its influence in the
Middle East, not to mention in Central Asia, at the expense of the Kremlin.
Moral
of this convoluted story: In Syrian intrigues, there is never a shortage of
players. Or pundits! – Leon Taylor, Baltimore
tayloralmaty@gmail.com
Notes
I thank Annabel Benson for useful comments.
References
Agence France-Presse. Anti-government protests take hold in southern Syria - Al-Monitor: Independent, trusted coverage of the Middle East. August 25, 2023.
Albert Aji and Bassem Mroue. Syria's Assad will visit China as Beijing boosts its reach in the Middle East | AP News. September 19, 2023.
George Baghdadi and Tucker Reals. Syria protests gain steam, challenging Bashar Assad as he tries to put the civil war behind him - CBS News. September 20, 2023.
Beatrice Farhat. Kurdish forces kill 14 pro-Turkey fighters in north Syria attack - Al-Monitor: Independent, trusted coverage of the Middle East. September 19, 2023.99999
Ghaith al-Sayed. Attack on Turkish-backed opposition fighters in Syria kills 13 of the militants, activists say | AP News. September 18, 2023.
I don't quite get how the Syrian Democratic Forces are subvert US interests by attacking the two factions in Afrin. Because pushing those factions out gives Assad more room?
ReplyDeleteIt's a good question. Nominally, the Arab tribes oppose Assad, because they want to rule their own regions themselves. The Syrian Democratic Forces are supposed to lead the fight against Assad, as well as fight Daesh. That's why the Americans set up the Forces in 2015. By attacking the Arabs, the Forces may distract from the overall aims of defeating Assad and the Islamic State. // The Forces explain that some Arab tribes are secretly in cahoots with Assad, so they arrested the Arab liaison to them a month ago. That arrest provoked the Arabs into attacking the Forces. The struggle has produced scores of casualties and continues. // There is also a deeper conflict, between Kurds and Arabs. Afrin was originally Kurdish. After Assad pulled out, leaving the area to govern itself, the Arabs brought in settlers to displace Kurds. Indeed, this ethnic conflict between Kurds and Arabs pervades northern Syria, and the Americans have never been able to quell it. That's one reason why the opposition has failed to oust Assad.
Delete