The New York Times writes: "With the Kursk incursion, Mr. [Rustem] Umerov [Ukraine's defense minister] argued, Ukraine has demonstrated it can invade, and even occupy, Russian territory without igniting World War III, according to two officials.
"But American officials say it is too early to reach that conclusion, because there are many ways for Mr. [Vladimir] Putin [Russia's president] to retaliate."
November 5, for example -- the day of the Presidential election in the United States. If Putin seeks to win his war with Ukraine, his cheapest means may be to ensure, by hook or crook, the election of former President Donald Trump. In the Republican candidate's debate Tuesday with the Democrat candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump refused repeatedly to say he wanted Ukraine to win the war. Instead, he said he wanted to end the war and if elected would do so in 24 hours by phoning Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The implication, as Harris said, was that Trump would force Zelensky to concede the war by threatening to cut off military aid to Ukraine.
However, even Harris did not seem to understand how a Russian victory would affect Central Asia. Harris said Putin would next target Poland. This, I think, is ludicrous. Poland has belonged to NATO since 1999. An invasion of Warsaw would activate the NATO requirement that all members defend the one under attack. That would mean World War III, and Putin is not so stupid as to risk it. More likely he would target a nation that does not belong to NATO and that has relatively little strategic interest for the US and Europe -- Kazakhstan. Leon Taylor, Seymour, Indiana tayloralmaty@gmail.com
References
David Sanger, Helene Cooper, and Erich Schmitt. Biden Poised to Approve Ukraine’s Use of Long-Range Western Weapons in Russia - The New York Times (nytimes.com) September 12, 2024.
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