Photo source: Wikipedia
Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convenes the war cabinet.
Photo source: Government of Israel.
News reports indicate that Iran and its clients have launched more than 300 drones as well as cruise and ballistic missiles in Tehran's first direct attack on Israel. It retaliates for the April 1 Israeli bombing of Iran's embassy in Damascus, which killed the head of operations of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps in Syria and Iraq.
The Israel Defense Forces said Israel and allies had shot down 99% of the hostile projectiles. Of more than 30 cruise missiles, none entered Israel's air space. Israeli planes intercepted 25. No drones penetrated the air space. A few ballistics got through, despite Israel's Arrow defense system. The IDF reported minor damage to the Nevatim airbase in southern Israel. But the attack continues. The terrorist group Hezbollah in Lebanon said it had launched Katyusha rockets against a military base in the Golan Heights. In general, the Golan Heights was one of the most vulnerable areas in Israel.
I guessed that at least a fourth of this barricade was aimed at Israel's biggest cities. These are protected by the Iron Dome defense system, which claims a success rate of 90% in destroying an incoming projectile. But a bevy of 50 missiles is serious business. Even with a 90% interception rate by the Dome, the chances that at least five will penetrate the Dome are 58%...unless projectiles are shot down before reaching the Dome by defending missiles or by jet fighters. (Calculations are below.) Evidently, that's what happened.
Until recently, the United States had two carrier battle groups in the region that could shoot down missiles. The Eisenhower group is still in the region of the Persian Gulf, but the Ford group returned to Norfolk several days ago after an eight-month deployment. Central Command, which runs the US military in the Middle East, repositioned two destroyers in the region. One has the Aegis system for defending against guided missiles, according to The Wall Street Journal. The Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group is near Japan, said defense analyst Stratfor.
Iran has warned the US not to get involved, and the US has denied advance knowledge of Israel's embassy attack. But it has also pledged to defend Israel in case of an Iranian attack. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the US had shot down dozens of drones and missiles from Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. Jordan said it shot down dozens of drones flying to Israel.
It seems inevitable that the US will be dragged to some degree into a Middle Eastern war. Undoubtedly this worries Washington less than seven months before a Presidential election. But by launching so many missiles, Iran has made clear that it intends a regional war. The US is not responsible for it, and it has no choice but to defend the region's strongest democracy. -- Leon Taylor, Seymour, Indiana tayloralmaty@gmail.com
Notes
For helpful comments, I thank but do not implicate Mark Kennet.
I assume that the probability that the Dome will destroy an incoming missile is 90% and is independent of its interception of any other of 50 missiles. (By “independence,” I mean that the Dome’s response to one missile does not affect its response to any other.) This scenario fits the Bernoulli probability distribution. The probability that the Dome would fail to intercept at least 5 of 50 missiles is
Sum [i = 5 to 50] ( 50! / (i! (50 – i)!))* (.1)^i *(.9)^(50 – i) .
References
Josef Federman and Jon Gambrell. Israel says Iran launched more than 300 drones and missiles, 99% of which were intercepted. Associated Press. Israel says Iran launched more than 300 drones and missiles, 99% of which were intercepted (yahoo.com) April 14, 2024.
The Jerusalem Post. US redeploy two destroyers to the Middle East over Iran threat - The Jerusalem Post (jpost.com) April 13, 2024.
Jacob Magid and Amy Spiro. IDF: Iran fired 200 missiles and drones; most intercepted; minor damage at IDF base | The Times of Israel. April 13, 2024.
Suleiman al-Khalidi. Jordan airforce shoots down Iranian drones flying over to Israel (yahoo.com) Reuters. April 14, 2024.
Anat Peled. Israel and allies intercepted 99% of Iran's drones and missiles, Israel says. The Wall Street Journal. April 14, 2024.
Stratfor. U.S. Naval Update Map: April 11, 2024 (stratfor.com)
The Wall Street Journal. Iran Launches Over 200 Drones and Missiles in Attack on Israel: Live Updates (wsj.com) April 14, 2024
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