Nevada, the gambler’s haven, paid off big for the Democrats Saturday when Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto edged out Adam Laxalt, a fervent supporter of former President Donald Trump, in her bid for re-election. Her win extends the Democrats’ control of the United States Senate by guaranteeing them at least half of the 100 seats. Vice President Kamala Harris, president pro tempore of the Senate and a Democrat, can vote to break ties.
Although Masto’s margin was only half a percentage
point, the Associated Press called the race for her since the mail ballots
being counted were going her way in a big way.
Her victory was not ordained. The first Latina in the US Senate, she lacked
even the fervent support of likely Hispanic voters, according to The New
York Times/Siena College poll of 885 likely voters in the Silver State in
late October. Of Hispanic respondents,
only 19% took a “very favorable” view of her; 31%, a “very unfavorable” one. As
the table below shows, Laxalt’s numbers were actually better.
Masto had a more pronounced advantage among women. Of female respondents, about the same number regarded her very favorably as very unfavorably. This may not sound like a hit parade; but regarding Laxalt, twice as many women held a dim view as a bright one. Nevada is pro-choice in capital letters—voters in 1990 approved abortion up to 24 weeks—and Laxalt has long opposed abortion although he has not proposed a national ban. Of poll respondents, 55% preferred a candidate who wanted most or all abortions legal and only 22% one who favored mostly or all illegal.
After the Supreme Court struck down the constitutional right to abortion in June, the Democrats made the voiding of Roe versus Wade their battle cry for the midterms. Apparently, in Nevada, their gamble paid off in gold doubloons. Strikingly, women polled indicated that they were no more likely to vote in the midterms than men. Perhaps abortion motivates Nevada voters across gender—which would have been a blessing for Masto, because men otherwise disapproved of her (see the table below).
As in the Georgia Senate race, national politics pervaded. Nevada respondents who voted for Democrat Joe Biden in the 2020 Presidential race loved Masto and hated Laxalt; the reverse was true for 2020 Trump voters. Some analysts suggested that Masto won partly because she held on to voters who disapprove of Biden today, since they disapproved of her only slightly. But The Times pre-election poll does not bear this out. Yes, of Biden critics, the share of those with a slightly unfavorable view of her was not much larger than the share with a similar view of Laxalt. But the share with a slightly favorable view of Laxalt well exceeded the counterpart view of Masto. If the argument is that Masto won because of support from mild voters, the numbers don’t bear it out.
It is more likely that she won because Biden supporters outvoted Biden critics. In The Times poll, of respondents who approve of Biden now, 60% said they were almost certain to vote. Among those who disapprove of Biden, the share was just 50%. Get-out-the-vote drives can matter, especially when you have an issue like abortion.
—Leon Taylor, Baltimore tayloralmaty@gmail.com
|
View |
All (D) |
All (R) |
Male (D) |
Male (R) |
Female (D) |
Female (R) |
Hispanic (D) |
Hispanic (R) |
|
Very favorable |
26% |
23% |
21% |
27% |
32% |
19% |
19% |
22% |
|
Very unfavorable |
36% |
32% |
39% |
28% |
33% |
37% |
31% |
25% |
|
View |
Biden 20 (D) |
Biden 20 (R) |
Trump 20 (D) |
Trump 20 (R) |
Biden App (D) |
Biden App (R) |
Biden Dis (D) |
Biden Dis (R) |
|
Very favorable |
58% |
4% |
1% |
49% |
60% |
3% |
6% |
37% |
|
Very unfavorable |
4% |
63% |
73% |
6% |
4% |
68% |
58% |
11% |
|
View |
Biden App (D) |
Biden App (R) |
Biden Dis (D) |
Biden Dis (R) |
|
Slightly
favorable |
24% |
7% |
6% |
23% |
|
Slightly
unfavorable |
6% |
13% |
17% |
11% |
All: All respondents
Biden 20: Respondents who
voted for Biden in 2020
Trump 20: Respondents who
voted for Trump in 2020
Biden App:
Respondents who approved of Biden in October
Biden Dis:
Respondents who disapproved of Biden in October
Reference
Jonathan Weisman. 2022. Catherine Cortez Masto, one of Democrats’ most vulnerable senators, eked out a win in Nevada. The New York Times, November 12.
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