The Great Divide

 

In a sense, the United States are becoming more united.  In Tuesday’s elections, national politics pervade even local races.

The gubernatorial race in Georgia illustrates the molten politics of the moment, as revealed by The New York Times/Siena College poll conducted in October 24-27 of 604 respondents.  Likely voters are passionate, for or against, about both candidates.  For the Democrat candidate, Stacey Abrams, 34% of the respondents had a very favorable view and 41% a very unfavorable one.  For the Republican incumbent, Brian Kemp, 32% held a very favorable view and 26% a very unfavorable one.  Thus for both candidates a majority of the respondents held extreme views.

Demographics likewise diverge.  Abrams faces stiff resistance from likely voters older than 65, white, or lacking a bachelor’s degree.  They strongly back Kemp.  See the first table below, where (A) denotes the percentage of respondents discussing Abrams and (K) Kemp.

Washington’s footprint is in the second table. Respondents who voted for Joe Biden in 2020 enthuse for Abrams, and Donald Trump voters revile her.  The opposite is true for Kemp, although Trump attacked him in the Republican primary.  (In 2020, Governor Kemp rejected Trump's demand that he call a legislative session to scuttle Biden's victory in the state,) Similar extremes hold for respondents who now approve or disapprove of President Biden.

The results may exaggerate the impact of national politics on the gubernatorial race, since no poll questions concerned statewide issues.  The closest was the respondents’ view of abortion: 49% preferred a candidate who wanted most or all abortions legal and only 27% a candidate who wanted most or all abortions illegal—a sign of hope, perhaps, for Abrams.

 

View	Total (A)	Total (K)	65+ (A)	65+ (K)	White (A)	White (K)	No BA (A)	No BA (K)
Very favorable	34%	32%	26%	52%	19%	44%	29%	35%
Very unfavorable	41%	26%	54%	19%	59%	17%	46%	22%

 

View	Biden 2020 (A)	Biden 2020 (K)	Trump 2020 (A)	Trump 2020 (K)	Biden approve (A)	Biden approve (K)	Biden disapprove (A)	Biden disapprove (K)
Very favorable	72%	4%	1%	64%	69%	5%	8%	52%
Very unfavorable	2%	53%	85%	1%	3%	53%	70%	5%

 The New York Times does not go out of its way to enlighten readers about its polling methods.  Concerning the sample, its description begins: “The survey is a stratified response-rate-adjusted probability-proportionate-to-size sample of the L2 voter file.” It goes downhill from there.

—   Leon Taylor, Baltimore, tayloralmaty@gmail.com

 

Reference

Reid J. Epstein and Ruth Igielnik.  2022.  In close, crucial governor’s races, poll finds sharp split on elections.  The New York Times, November 1.  Retrieved from nytimes.com

Amy Gardner, Colby Itkowitz, and Josh Dawsey.  2020.  Trump calls Georgia governor to pressure him for help overturning Biden’s win in the state.  The Washington Post, December 5.  Retrieved from washingtonpost.com