Talk about close shaves: Tuesday’s Senatorial election in Georgia didn’t leave even a follicle. Incumbent Raphael Warnock, a Democrat, and Republican Herschel Walker are virtually tied: Warnock with 49.4% of the vote, Walker with 48.5%. The Libertarian Chase Oliver received 2.1%. Presumably those votes would otherwise have gone to Walker, who would have just eked above 50%. As it was, no candidate exceeded 50%, triggering a December 6 runoff, sans spoilsport Oliver.
A choice for sure. Warnock was the pastor at Martin Luther
King’s old church, Ebenezer Baptist, in Atlanta, and he is a moderate a la Biden.
Walker won the Heisman Trophy as a running back for the University of Georgia
Bulldogs in 1982 and is a cheerleader for former President Donald Trump.
What are their supporters
like? Let’s look at a major media
survey, The New York Times/Siena College poll, conducted in October
24-27 of 604 likely voters in Georgia—not a huge sample, but probably the best
that we can hope for with a detailed questionnaire like this. The table below summarizes results for
respondents who were “very favorable” or “very unfavorable” about the two
candidates: The “D” denotes “Democrat” (Warnock) and the “R” “Republican” (Walker).
Most respondents had
strong opinions about both candidates: 70% were very favorable or very unfavorable
towards Pastor Warnock, and 66% towards Walker.
But of the staunch views about Walker, nearly two-thirds were
unfavorable, probably because of accusations that he had paid for an abortion
by one girlfriend and compelled another to abort. Walker denied that he had
paid for abortions in either case, although The Daily Beast reported
that it had seen a receipt from the clinic and his check. He wants to ban all abortions. Asked which candidate was the “more honest and
trustworthy,” 49% of the respondents named Warnock and just 37% Walker.
Both candidates are African-American,
but white respondents were much more critical of Warnock (51%) than of Walker
(28%). Ditto for respondents older than 65. But the kids disdain Walker:
Of respondents aged 18 to 29 (in the third part of the table), only 4% had a
very favorable view.
Women were also more likely
to be negative about Walker (45%) than about Warnock (35%). Perhaps this reflects Walker’s adamant stance
on abortion. Of all respondents, 49% preferred a candidate who wanted most or
all abortions legal and only 27% a candidate who wanted most or all abortions
illegal. Indeed, only 9% wanted a candidate who would ban all abortions.
Curiously, respondents
without college degrees had about the same view of both candidates. But those with bachelors
degrees were harder on Walker than on Warnock (in the third part of the table).
This may owe something to Walker’s devotion to Trump.
In fact, Presidential politics have an indelible impression on this race. Of respondents who voted for Biden in 2020, only 2% have a very favorable view of Walker. And of those who voted for Trump, 2% had a very favorable view of Warnock. Congruent patterns hold for respondents who now approve or disapprove of Biden. These trends, incidentally, also described likely voters in the gubernatorial race between Republican incumbent Brian Kemp and Democrat Stacey Abrams. Kemp won handily, although Trump had vitiated him in the Republican primary. We’ll see whether Trump’s blessing of Walker is a blessing for him on December 6. – Leon Taylor, Baltimore tayloralmaty@gmail.com
|
View |
Total (D) |
Total (R) |
65+ (D) |
65+ (R) |
White (D) |
White (R) |
No BA (D) |
No BA (R) |
|
Very favorable |
34% |
25% |
31% |
45% |
23% |
33% |
31% |
30% |
|
Very unfavorable |
36% |
41% |
53% |
35% |
51% |
28% |
40% |
37% |
|
View |
Biden 2020 (D) |
Biden 2020 (R) |
Trump 2020 (D) |
Trump 2020 (R) |
Biden approve (D) |
Biden approve (R) |
Biden disapprove (D) |
Biden disapprove (R) |
|
Very favorable |
68% |
2% |
2% |
53% |
71% |
4% |
7% |
41% |
|
Very unfavorable |
4% |
76% |
75% |
7% |
4% |
78% |
61% |
15% |
|
View |
Male (D) |
Male (R) |
Female (D) |
Female (R) |
18-29 (D) |
18-29 (R) |
BA (D) |
BA (R) |
|
Very favorable |
31% |
23% |
37% |
26% |
27% |
4% |
39% |
17% |
|
Very unfavorable |
37% |
36% |
35% |
45% |
22% |
35% |
31% |
46% |
Note
In the most recent count, Warnock had 1,941,499 votes;
Walker, 1,906,246; and Oliver, 81,175. Had all of Oliver’s votes gone to
Walker, he would have finished with 50.6%.
References
Marquise Francis. 2022. Crucial Georgia Senate race between Warnock, Walker heads to December runoff. Yahoo News, November 9. Retrieved from yahoo.com
The New York Times. 2022. Georgia
U.S. Senate Election Results. November
10. Retrieved from nytimes.com
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