Assad and the crossing

                                         Al-Hawa crossing at the Turkey-Syria border: 

                                        Will Assad really let the trucks roll? Photo source: Ghaith Alsayed, AP 

 

At first, that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has approved the main crossing between Syria and Turkey may seem good news for refugees in northwestern Syria. To survive, they must have food and medicine from across the border. Thanks to hyperinflation, the typical Syrian earns barely enough to buy food. And Idlib Province is one of the country's poorest.

In reality, Assad’s seeming tolerance may starve Idlib.  The key is in Syria’s declaration that it will not deal with terrorists.

The opposition to Damascus is largely in the north, which is ruled by a group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, headed by a former leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq. Yes, they are terrorists.  The humanitarian agency of the United Nations has amply documented their atrocities. But they are also in charge. Unless Assad plans to attack them, there is no way to get humanitarian aid to the refugee camps without dealing with them. By refusing to negotiate, Assad is tightening the noose of famine around one of the last pockets of opposition to him. This might not be a coincidence. For example, Syria refuses to cooperate with the UN on supplying safe drinking water.  In Hasakah Governate of the northeast, Turkey and its allies in the Syrian opposition, the Syrian National Army, cut off water, reported North Press. Because of Syrian intransigence, we don't know what areas of this war-torn country need water, nor how much.

In general, the West does not realize how close Syria is to starving. The UN could fund only about a fifth of its request for humanitarian aid to the country, according to the Syrian Observer.

                      Residents have placed empty containers for water next to the water "tower" in Hasakah. Photo source: North Press

There’s worse. To flee to Turkey, as if the Turks would accept them, the refugees must have dollars.  They are aided somewhat by American relaxation of restraints on dollar movements in Syria; the restraints had been intended to avoid financing illegal activity by the Iranians and Hamas. But one likely source of dollars to Syria, under the table, is Russia, Syria’s ally and mentor. Western sanctions on Russia’s oil and natural gas exports have choked off its dollars, to the extent that Russia's once-comfortable current account surplus has virtually vanished. Russia no longer has dollars to supply to Damascus, so these will not trickle down to the refugees. Without dollars, they cannot migrate. They are trapped in Syria.

One solution may be for the Arab League to pressure Assad to negotiate with HTS to enable humanitarian aid to reach the refugees. Assad hungers for the League’s recognition. The question is whether the League will perceive a benefit from twisting Assad's arm. -- Leon Taylor, Baltimore, tayloralmaty@gmail.com     

Note

I thank Annabel Benson for useful comments.

 

Reference

Emma Jamal. UN expert cancels visit to Syria due to lack of cooperation. UN expert cancels visit to Syria due to lack of cooperation (npasyria.com)

Syria Allows U.N. to Use Bab al-Hawa Border Crossing for Aid Deliveries - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

Syria Permits UN Aid Deliveries Through Bab al-Hawa for Another 6 Months - The Syrian Observer