Getting even

                             Al-Tanf garrison in southeastern Syria 2018. Photo: AP, Lolita Baldor
 

The Wall Street Journal reports with much evidence that Iran tightly controls the militias in Syria and Iraq that are associated with it, and that it helped plan and approve the Hamas attack on Israel October 7. The militias have already assaulted US posts in Syria and Iraq more than a dozen times in little more than a week. Whether they attack the posts again in the next few days depends on whether Iran thinks that the benefits to it would exceed the expected cost of an American response.

 Iran’s Supreme Leader since 1989, Ali Khamenei, may regard Americans as too weak to risk war; and the 84-year-old cleric may think that Iran would greatly benefit from militia assaults, because occupying Syria, even if not conspicuously, would break up the range of Sunni countries on its borders. It could also distract the Iranian public from the country’s tottering economy, with 40% inflation, and from the government’s repression of women’s rights, beginning with the September 2022 death, after being in custody of the morality police, of 22-year-old Maysa Amini, who wore her headscarf, known as the hijab, too loosely to satisfy the mop cops.  At least 551 people have died in the crackdown on the protests of Amini's death.

Whether militias do attack depends on whether Biden can convince Khamenei that he would indeed destroy the militias if they attack US posts again…and that Iran itself may pay a price in a bombing of one of its military centers, either in Iran or in one of its allies such as Syria. Khamenei, not the Iranian military, directly oversees the Revolutionary Guards, which in turn control the militias. And it is not clear that Khamenei cares much about the militias.

It helps that Central Command sent two F16s early Friday morning (Damascus time) to bomb an ammo and munitions depot near Al-Bukamal in northeastern Syria, on the Euphrates River in Deir Ez-Zour province. The terrorist Islamic State had its last Syrian urban fortification there, and Syrian Arab tribes hostile to the US are in the area. The depot has, or had, the sort of munitions used to attack al-Tanf, a US garrison in southeastern Syria that trains recruits for the Kurdish-led group, the Syrian Democratic Forces, that spearheads the American fight against the Islamic State.  The bombing at Al-Bukamal was retaliation.

Israel will hold off its invasion until the US positions its pieces—the USS Eisenhower in the Gulf, the Terminal High Altitude Air Defense (THAAD), a sophisticated defense against ballistic missiles, and battalions of the older Patriot defense missiles at various sites. But might militias take advantage of this delay to attack US posts?  Since everyone expects the militias to assault only after Israel invades, the militias might try to surprise the Americans with an advance attack. I hope that I'm overanalyzing.

In any event, the American retaliation has left the situation better than it was. A key militia, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, which claimed responsibility for the al-Tanf attack, is crippled, and the others will take note. But as the Israeli invasion begins to launch, Khamenei may smell blood. This is his chance to seize leadership of the Shiite Middle East, and perhaps beyond: Iran has designs on Central Asia.

The Pentagon reports that at al-Tanf, drone attacks in the past week resulted in 15 traumatic brain injuries, and two other minor injuries. TBI is hard to diagnose: It initially shows up as headaches and ringing ears that troops may find easy to dismiss. I would guess that there are roughly 200 to 300 people at al-Tanf. So the annual risk of TBI at al-Tanf could be 5% to 7.5%. This strikes me as high. The Pentagon may underestimate the problem. 

I suppose that TBI occurs partly because of disruption of dopamine, serotonin, or other hormones that aid concentration. Ritalin may be a good treatment.  In any event, the political headache for Americans of Iranian drone assaults may just be beginning. –Leon Taylor, Baltimore tayloralmaty@gmail.com

 

 Notes

 For helpful comments, I thank, but do not implicate, Annabel Benson, Mark Kennet, and Forest Weld.

 

References

Courtney Kube and Mosheh Gains.  Drone attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria injured two dozen (nbcnews.com) . October 25, 2023.

Dan Lamothe.  Biden urged to punish Iranian proxies after attacks on U.S. troops - The Washington Post . October 26, 2023.

Summer Said, Dov Lieber, and Benoit Faucon.  Hamas Fighters Trained in Iran Before Oct. 7 Attacks - WSJ .  October 25, 2023.

News brief: Drones attack al-Tanf again

 

 Two beleaguered Presidents: Bashar al-Assad of Syria and Vladimir Putin of Russia.  Photo: Vladimir Gerdo, TASS Russia 

Two drones attacked the US Army base at al-Tanf, in southeastern Syria, today. US defense officials indicated that no one was hurt, but in fact there were minor injuries. An Iraqi militia backed by Iran, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, claimed responsibility.

Al-Tanf is small but strategic. It is near the borders with Iraq and Jordan, and it lies on the main road from Baghdad to Damascus. Militias use the road to move Iranian arms from Iraq to the Hezbollah terrorists in southern Lebanon, which borders Syria on the east as well as Israel. Hezbollah dominates Lebanon politically as well as militarily and is financed by its Shiite ally, Iran.

It is in the interest of Iran and Russia to goad the US into leaving Syria without going so far as war. Both Iran and Russia want to extend their regional influence at American expense, but for different reasons. Iran wants to disrupt the lockhold of Sunni nations surrounding it as well as to divert Iranians from its gasping economy and brutal suppression of women’s rights.  Russia wants to regain the global power that it lost in the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union. Towards those ends, Iranian-backed militias harass al-Tanf as well as the US post in northeastern Syria. This post ostensibly protects Syrian oilfields from the Islamic State terrorists bent upon setting up their own state.  Russian pilots buzz al-Tanf and photograph it.

The real story is a bit more complex.  The gas and oil fields in northeastern Syria, as well as the water aquifers, are not controlled by Damascus. They are in a province that won some independence away from President Bashar al-Assad in a civil war that began in 2011.  The Arab tribes that populate the province regard the gas, oil, and water as their own.  Assad begs to disagree. He would like to retake these precious resources but lacks the troops.  So he relies on his allies, Iran and Russia, to do his dirty work.  

The Russians have been meeting with tribes in Deir ez-Zour Province that are willing to cooperate with Assad, according to a Syrian opposition news site, North Press Agency. These tribes have rarely challenged the Americans directly but instead oppose the coalition that the US set up in 2014. The purpose of the Syrian Democratic Forces is to fight the Islamic State and, to be frank, Assad. This coalition is led by Kurds, whom Syrian Arabs have long despised.

Last summer, al-Tanf began training Kurdish recruits with the probable purpose of strengthening the Syrian Democratic Forces in fighting Assad, who is losing power because of the collapsing economy. Iran has countered with drone attacks by its proxies. 

In addition, the US has beefed up its forces in the region to protect Israel from Hezbollah and Hamas. This can stymie Iran’s campaign for regional influence. Today’s attack on al-Tanf was probably a message to the Americans.

“I warn the US and its proxy Israel that if they do not immediately stop the crime against humanity and genocide in Gaza, anything is possible at any moment and the region will go out of control,” said Iran’s foreign minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, in Tehran Sunday, according to BBC. 

For helpful comments, I thank, but do not implicate, Annabel Benson and Mark Kennet.  – Leon Taylor, Baltimore, tayloralmaty@gmail.com

References

Malin Muhammad. Russia, Iran mobilize tribes against SDF in Syria’s Deir ez-Zor (npasyria.com) . North Press Agency. September 2, 2023

Lawrence Richard. Iran-backed militias in Iraq claim responsibility for attack on US military base in Syria | Fox News . October 23, 2023.

Nikita Smagin.  Forgotten Front: Why Syria Is Becoming a Headache for Russia - The Moscow Times . October 23, 2023.

Jared Szuba. Washington warns Iran as doubts grow about Israel's abilities in Gaza war - Al-Monitor: Independent, trusted coverage of the Middle East . October 23, 2023.

Joby Warrick and Evan Hill. Iran looks to escalate attacks against U.S. troops in Syria, documents show - The Washington Post . June 1, 2023.

News brief: Drone attacks on US military posts in Syria and Iraq

 

                                       The US base at al-Tanf in Syria in 2018.  Photo: AP, Lolita Baldor
                        

Until now, few major print news media in the United States had reported the drone attacks in the past 30 hours on US military posts in eastern Syria and western Iraq. Minor injuries were reported at al-Tanf in southern Syria and the al-Asad air base in the Anbar province of Iraq. But apparently, al-Tanf had more injuries than has been reported. And the Pentagon confirmed that a US contractor died of a heart attack at al-Asad. 

The "minor injuries" might have included headaches and ringing in the ears, which can indicate brain injury. More than 100 such traumatic injuries were reported in Iranian missile attacks on the al-Asad base in Iraq in 2020 in retaliation for the American assassination of Quds Forces commander Qasem Soleimani, said Reuters. In that incident, what had been characterized as only minor injuries were eventually confirmed as severe concussions.

Roughly 900 US troops are in eastern Syria and 2,500 in Iraq. US air bases in Iraq have taken three drone attacks in 24 hours, reported Reuters.

Five explosions were heard near the Conoco gas field in northern Syria, near Deir Al-Zour, according to the Observatory for Human Rights in Syria based in England, which is usually reliable.

Iran has warned that militia associated with it would retaliate pre-emptively on multiple fronts if the Americans did not stay out of the Israel-Hamas War. US President Joe Biden supports the impending Israeli counter-attack on Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Central Command, in charge of the US military in the Middle East and Central Asia, says American troops guard oil and gas fields in northeastern Syria from a takeover by the Islamic State terrorist group (Daesh is the Arabic acronym). 

The al-Tanf base is on the main road from Baghdad to Damascus, which Iran uses to supply Hezbollah in Lebanon. The base trains recruits to the Syrian Democratic Forces, the Kurdish-led militia that opposes Daesh and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, an ally of Iran.

The reports that I've seen did not mention the number of injuries at al-Tanf or al-Asad. In the 2020 attack on al-Asad, 11 missiles carrying warheads of 1,500 or 2,000 pounds resulted in 200 head injuries, of which 110 were eventually diagnosed as traumatic, according to Wikipedia's detailed account. No missile was intercepted (!). So the number of TBIs per missile was 110/11, or 10. At al-Tanf, one drone got through. I don't know its payload, but the latest Iranian drone, Mahajer-10, has one of 661 pounds, according to Amwaj. If the blast area is proportional to the payload, then one can speculate that the attack on al-Tanf may lead to 3 or 4 TBIs. But the al-Tanf post is small, which may both increase the troop density and decrease the total number of troops. So I would guess that al-Tanf might have 3 to 10 TBIs. This is clearly just a guess.   

A question of interest is why, if there were only a few drones attacking al-Asad and al-Tanf, any got through. In the 2020 al-Asad assault, the US Space Force provided hours of advance warning. How much warning was there this time?      

No one has claimed undisputed responsibility of these drone attacks. A pro-Palestinian militia said it had assaulted US bases in Syria, but the Pentagon said it was still checking. However, the drone attacks are consistent with an Iranian campaign to extend regional influence. The Arab Post reports that on October 15, Quds Forces Commander Ismail Qaani met with Assad in Damascus for two days to set up a war room coordinating operations by Syria, Iran, and Iraq against Israel, supervised by the Revolutionary Guards. The attack on Israel would come from the Golan Heights. I am not aware that this report has been confirmed by other media.

The USS Carney destroyer shot down three cruise missiles and several drones from Houthi rebels, in Yemen, who are backed by Iran. The barrage was in the direction of Israel.  Nearly two dozen drones attacked the destroyer itself. US troops and civilians were not reported hurt.  -- Leon Taylor, Baltimore, tayloralmaty@gmail.com

                                             Source: Stars and Stripes

References

Idrees Ali and Phil Stewart. More than 100 U.S. troops diagnosed with brain injuries from Iran attack | Reuters . February 10, 2020.

Amwaj media. Amid escalating shadow war with Israel, Iran unveils new combat drone | Amwaj.media

Arab Post.  Th eattack will not be from Lebanon...Qaaani's visit to Syria and Iraq reveals details of possible Iranian interference against Israel.  جريدة القدس (alquds.com) . October 18 2023.

Kamal Ayash. Rockets, drones hit Iraqi base housing U.S. forces -security sources | Reuters October 19, 2023.

Tara Copp. Drones attack US military base in Syria, US officials say | AP News . October 19, 2023. 

Farnaz Fassihi. Iran Warns Israel if Attacks Worsen in Gaza - The New York Times (nytimes.com) . October 16, 2023. 

J. P. Lawrence. Drones target US troops in Middle East for second day in a row. Drones target US troops in Middle East for second day in a row | Stars and Stripes 

Daniel L. Magruder. Al-Tanf garrison: America's strategic baggage in the Middle East. Al Tanf garrison: America’s strategic baggage in the Middle East | Brookings . November 20, 2020.

Jared Szuba. US destroyer shoots down cruise missiles by Iran-backed Houthis - Al-Monitor: Independent, trusted coverage of the Middle East . October 19, 2023.

Wikipedia.  Operation Martyr Soleimani - Wikipedia

Nancy A. Youssef and Gordon Lubold.  U.S. Forces in Syria, Iraq and Red Sea Come Under Militant Attack (msn.com) . The Wall Street Journal. October 19, 2023.

The blues of the birth

 After more than a decade of decline, the demand to attend KIMEP University, prominent in Kazakhstan, is rising.  The number of credit hours has increased for two years. To what extent is this due to demographics? Is the youthful share of Kazakhstan’s population rising, putting the graybeards to shame? 

 Well, sort of.  The birth rate in Kazakhstan fell during the stomach-churning transition to markets in the 1990s. Then it rose with oil prices in the early 2000s.  But it remains below the 1987 point. So Kazakhstan might have to rely on immigration to build up the youthful share of its population if it wants to return to the glorious Eighties (ahem). 

But it’s striking that the birth rate is rising at all in this neck of the world. Even in Russia, well-known for its shrinking population, the birth rate rose with oil prices from 1999 to 2014. Perhaps a rising income can lead to births over short periods? At first, one is tempted to attribute the increase to the policy of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s to stimulate the population by awarding others for births. But the rise since about 1999 is like the one in Kazakhstan. 

Uzbekistan, famous for a high fertility rate, has a falling birth rate stretching back to the Communist Sixties. Its birth rate rises a few years after that in Russia and Kazakhstan. One wonders if this might reflect that Uzbekistan relies on cotton rather than oil for income.

But in most of the world, especially in the United States, rising income and opportunities for women to work seem to have delayed marriage and births. Sooner or later, economics makes its mark. –Leon Taylor, Baltimore tayloralmaty@gmail.com

Notes

All data are from the World Bank.

  

 

The shape of things to come, Syrian version

                                      A victim of the drone attack on a Homs academy. Photo source: SANA

 Conflict in Syria may deepen.  Although no one has claimed responsibility for this week's attack on the military academy in Homs, killing at least 90, the most logical candidate is Turkey, I think.  The attackers planned carefully and knew a lot about the academy: They struck it during a graduation exercise. Another logical possibility would be Iran.  But to plan such an attack in a few hours, so that it would coincide with Turkey’s effective declaration of war this week on the Syrian Democratic Forces, is too lucky to believe.  It might be good to know from where the drones flew.

If the attack was Turkish, then its most likely rationale is to pave the way for a ground invasion. The Syrian Army is already unpaid and demoralized, and wiping out its young officers would set it back for years. Ground invasions take months to set up, so one wonders cynically if Turkey rather welcomed the suicide killing as an excuse to get the ball rolling by taking out the Homs academy.  Indeed, note that Turkey attacked less than a week after its chief antagonist in the US Senate, Bob Menendez, was forced out as chair of the foreign affairs committee by a long-brewing corruption scandal.

Turkey’s partial invasions of northern Syria, going back to at least 2019, haven’t stopped violence in Turkey by the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). So Turkey President Recep Tayyip Erdogan may believe that only a permanent buffer zone – something like 30 kilometers deep – could curtail the PKK, by denying the terrorists a safe harbor. That would be the ostensible reason for the invasion.  Of course, northeast Syria also has oilfields.

The question is how the Americans should respond. We already have the specter of one NATO ally shooting down a drone of another, and a ground invasion would almost certainly lead to clashes with US troops; about 900 are in eastern Syria.  I suppose that the Americans and the Turks would come to an advance understanding.  One possibility is that the Americans could withdraw on the agreement that the Turks after invading would contain ISIS. As a true-blue isolationist, former President Donald Trump would do that.  But I’m not sure that Biden would, because I see no strong reason why the Turks would bother to bottle up ISIS for long after they take over the oil fields. I think that the Americans and the Turks might agree to share power, with the Americans confining themselves to fighting ISIS.

Two questions remain. Who would govern Syria? I suppose that Syria President Bashar Assad, or his successor, would have to answer to Iran, Russia, and Turkey. Instant chaos.  The Americans and the Israelis would certainly encourage Turkey to block Iran.

And…what would happen to America’s faithful Kurdish allies, who spearheaded the fight against the Islamic State in Syria? Turkey wouldn’t permit them to stay. Its foreign minister designed assassinations of YPG leaders while heading the spy agency MIT. (As you know, despite American denials, Turkey regarded the YPG, the People’s Protection Units, as the Syrian counterpart of the PKK. A YPG leader ran the Syrian Democratic Forces for the Americans.) Perhaps the Americans could set them up in Kurdistan, but the Iraqis would object to any loss of sovereignty. I think that the Syrian Kurds have the most to lose in this saga. 

My two cents' worth, not discounted for Syrian hyperinflation. -- Leon Taylor, Baltimore, tayloralmaty@gmail.com 

     

 

 

  

News brief: Turkey attacks in Syria

                               A bomb expert at the site of a suicide attack in Ankara October 1. Photo source;                                      Reuters, Cagla Gurdogan
 

At least 15 Turkish drone attacks on northeast Syria killed at least eight today, according to the Syrian Democratic Forces, the Kurdish militia in the area organized by the Americans. Turkey says a ground invasion may be next. 

About 900 US troops are in the area, ostensibly to protect oilfields from the Islamic State, which is still active there albeit in cells. Chances for hostilities between the Turks and the Americans are not trivial. A few hours ago, a US F-16 shot down a Turkish drone a half kilometer from US troops in northern Syria. US defense secretary Lloyd Austin spoke with his Turkish counterpart, Yasar Guler. The Pentagon said it had no indication that Turkey was targeting US troops.  

And a drone attack on a Syrian military academy in Homs province, in central Syria, killed at least 80 and injured at least 240 at a graduation exercise, according to the reliable Syrian Observatory for Human Rights and pro-regime sources. After the attack, Syria shelled villages in Idlib Province, an area of opposition to the Syrian regime.

No one has claimed responsibility for the explosive-packed drones. If they were from Turkey, then this suggests that Turkey is preparing the way for a land invasion and wants to keep Syria from holding its ground. Perhaps Turkey wants to hold northern Syria permanently. It already has troops in northwestern Syria. In any event, a Turkish invasion would inevitably entangle American troops. Yet, I have read no reaction from Central Command, which is in charge of the US Army in Syria; the State Department; or the White House. Caught by surprise?   This might result from the White House's failure to fashion a Syrian policy.

 

This blowup began with a suicide attack in Ankara Monday.  Turkey blamed it on two Syrians. Turkey President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the two had acted for the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK), a nationalist group that both Turkey and the US regard as terrorist. The PKK accepted responsibility for the bombing. Erdogan equates the PKK to another Kurdish group, the People’s Protection Units (YPG) that has been active in northern Syria. Indeed, a YPG leader became the head of the Syrian Democratic Forces. The US maintains that it trained YPG members of the Syrian Democratic Forces on the stipulation that they fight The Islamic State, not Turkey.  But Turkey says the Forces’ sites are fair game for the military.  Indeed, the Turkish foreign minister, Hakan Fidan, had designed drone attacks on YPG leaders when he headed the Turkish intelligence agency MIT.  In April, a Turkish drone almost took out a convoy with SDF leader Mazlum Kobane and two US military officials.

The Americans organized the Syrian Democratic Forces in 2015 to fight the Islamic State and, less visibly, Syrian President Bashar Assad, whose dictatorship has been the object of a civil war since 2011. Since American troops work closely with the SDF, they may well be injured by Turkish attacks on the Forces.

 

The US also has a post at al-Tanf in southeastern Syria, near Iraq and Jordan, which trains Kurds. The implications of the Turkish bombings for al-Tanf aren’t clear, but they can’t be good for the US.

 

One can best understand these swift events in the context of a larger, complex struggle. In the past few days, the Israelis have attacked by air Syrian army bases near the Deir al-Zour province in northeastern Syria. News reports haven’t given a reason for these attacks, but Israel worries about arms shipments to the Hezbollah in Lebanon across Syria, perhaps through the western port at Latakia. The Israelis have also bombed Iranian arms shipments near Damascus, at al-Dimas. 

 

And reports say that the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Ismail Qaani, visited military sites in Syria while Assad was in China begging for money. A Kuwaiti newspaper, Al Jarida, says Qaani discussed shipping old stockpiled arms from Hezbollah to regime-friendly Arab tribes in the northeast of Syria. Then new Russian arms would be shipped back to Hezbollah. The Arabs could then attack the Syrian Democratic Forces, which they resent for occupying their land; and the Russians could make pocket money on sales to Hezbollah. The Americans would be pressured to withdraw. 

 

All this suggests that Iran and Turkey are trying to extend their influence in Syria and don't much care what Assad thinks of it. He is increasingly irrelevant, especially as a popular protest of his regime has grown in the past month. Turkey already has troops in northwestern Syria and wants to keep the Kurdistan Workers’ Party from establishing a foothold on its borders. Iran wants power in the Middle East; Syria is just a stepping stone.  

The Turkish drone attacks undoubtedly will strengthen Congressional opposition to the $20 billion sale of F-16s to Turkey. When Turkey invaded northeastern Syria in 2019, Congress imposed sanctions that blocked the sale. It probably won't unblock them now, even though Turkey critic Bob Menendez stepped down about a week ago as head of the Senate foreign affairs committee due to bribery indictments.  Stay tuned. – Leon Taylor, Baltimore tayloralmaty@gmail.com

 

Notes

For helpful comments, I thank, without implicating, Nicholas Baigent, Annabel Benson, and Mark Kennet.  This update corrects the spelling of the name of the US defense secretary. 

 

References

Kareem Chehayeb and Albert Aji.  Drone attack kills 80 and wounds 240 at a packed Syrian military graduation ceremony, official says | AP News 

 Drone attack on Syria military academy leaves at least 60 dead (france24.com)

Anthony France. Drone attack on military academy kills 80 and wounds 240 in Syria (msn.com)

Turkey's Fidan declares all PKK, YPG facilities in Syria, Iraq 'legitimate targets' - Al-Monitor: Independent, trusted coverage of the Middle East

U.S. Jet Shoots Down Turkish Drone Over Syria - WSJ 

U.S.-led forces reportedly down drone in Syria as Turkey strikes area | Reuters

 

 

 

Is Iran making its move in Syria?

 

                                An Israeli F-35 in southern Israel in 2019. Photo source: Reuters, Amir Cohen

The Israelis have just attacked by air Syrian army bases near the northeastern province Deir al-Zour, according to Reuters. The British news service didn't give a reason for the attack.  But Israel worries about Iranian arms shipments to the Hezbollah terrorists in Lebanon across Syria, perhaps through the port at Latakia in western Syria. About a day ago, the Israelis bombed Iranian arms shipments near Damascus, at al-Dimas. 

 On top of all of this, the head of the Revolutionary Guards, Ismail Qaani, reportedly visited military sites in Syria while President Bashar Assad was in China last month. A Kuwaiti newspaper, Al Jarida, says Qaani discussed shipping old stockpiled arms from Hezbollah to Arab tribes in northeast Syria that are friendly to Assad, then shipping new Russian arms back to Hezbollah. The Arabs could attack the Syrian Democratic Forces, organized by the Americans in the northeast in part to lead the fight against Assad. And the Russians, allies to Assad, could make pocket money on sales to Hezbollah. The Americans would be pressured to withdraw from the Syrian oilfields that they ostensibly seized to keep them out of the hands of the Islamic State, cells of which remain active west of the Euphrates River. 

One infers that Iran is trying cleverly to extend its regional influence via Syria and doesn't much care Assad thinks of it. He is increasingly irrelevant. And Tehran is increasingly wresting control of Damascus away from Moscow.—Leon Taylor, Baltimore tayloralmaty@gmail.com

 

References

Alleged Israeli airstrikes target Iranian sites in eastern Syria - The Jerusalem Post (jpost.com)

Two Syrian soldiers injured in Israeli air attack on army sites in Deir al Zor | Reuters