At least 15 Turkish drone attacks on northeast Syria killed at least eight today, according to the Syrian Democratic Forces, the Kurdish militia in the area organized by the Americans. Turkey says a ground invasion may be next.
About 900 US troops are in the area, ostensibly to protect oilfields from the Islamic State, which is still active there albeit in cells. Chances for hostilities between the Turks and the Americans are not trivial. A few hours ago, a US F-16 shot down a Turkish drone a half kilometer from US troops in northern Syria. US defense secretary Lloyd Austin spoke with his Turkish counterpart, Yasar Guler. The Pentagon said it had no indication that Turkey was targeting US troops.
And a drone attack on a Syrian military academy in Homs province, in central Syria, killed at least 80 and injured at least 240 at a graduation exercise, according to the reliable Syrian Observatory for Human Rights and pro-regime sources. After the attack, Syria shelled villages in Idlib Province, an area of opposition to the Syrian regime.
No one has claimed responsibility for the explosive-packed drones. If they were from Turkey, then this suggests that Turkey is preparing the way for a land invasion and wants to keep Syria from holding its ground. Perhaps Turkey wants to hold northern Syria permanently. It already has troops in northwestern Syria. In any event, a Turkish invasion would inevitably entangle American troops. Yet, I have read no reaction from Central Command, which is in charge of the US Army in Syria; the State Department; or the White House. Caught by surprise? This might result from the White House's failure to fashion a Syrian policy.
This blowup began with a suicide attack in Ankara Monday. Turkey blamed it on two Syrians. Turkey President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the two had acted for the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK), a nationalist group that both Turkey and the US regard as terrorist. The PKK accepted responsibility for the bombing. Erdogan equates the PKK to another Kurdish group, the People’s Protection Units (YPG) that has been active in northern Syria. Indeed, a YPG leader became the head of the Syrian Democratic Forces. The US maintains that it trained YPG members of the Syrian Democratic Forces on the stipulation that they fight The Islamic State, not Turkey. But Turkey says the Forces’ sites are fair game for the military. Indeed, the Turkish foreign minister, Hakan Fidan, had designed drone attacks on YPG leaders when he headed the Turkish intelligence agency MIT. In April, a Turkish drone almost took out a convoy with SDF leader Mazlum Kobane and two US military officials.
The Americans organized the Syrian Democratic Forces in 2015 to fight the Islamic State and, less visibly, Syrian President Bashar Assad, whose dictatorship has been the object of a civil war since 2011. Since American troops work closely with the SDF, they may well be injured by Turkish attacks on the Forces.
The US also has a post at al-Tanf in southeastern Syria, near
Iraq and Jordan, which trains Kurds. The implications of the Turkish bombings
for al-Tanf aren’t clear, but they can’t be good for the US.
One
can best understand these swift events in the context of a larger, complex
struggle. In the past few days, the Israelis have
attacked by air Syrian army bases near the Deir al-Zour province in
northeastern Syria. News reports haven’t given a reason for these attacks, but Israel
worries about arms shipments to the Hezbollah in Lebanon across Syria, perhaps
through the western port at Latakia. The Israelis have also bombed Iranian arms
shipments near Damascus, at al-Dimas.
And reports
say that the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Ismail Qaani, visited
military sites in Syria while Assad was in China begging for money. A
Kuwaiti newspaper, Al Jarida, says Qaani discussed shipping old
stockpiled arms from Hezbollah to regime-friendly Arab tribes in the northeast
of Syria. Then new Russian arms would be shipped back to Hezbollah. The Arabs
could then attack the Syrian Democratic Forces, which they resent for occupying
their land; and the Russians could make pocket money on sales to Hezbollah. The
Americans would be pressured to withdraw.
All this suggests that Iran and Turkey are trying to extend their influence in Syria and don't much care what Assad thinks of it. He is increasingly irrelevant, especially as a popular protest of his regime has grown in the past month. Turkey already has troops in northwestern Syria and wants to keep the Kurdistan Workers’ Party from establishing a foothold on its borders. Iran wants power in the Middle East; Syria is just a stepping stone.
The Turkish drone attacks undoubtedly will strengthen Congressional opposition to the $20 billion sale of F-16s to Turkey. When Turkey invaded northeastern Syria in 2019, Congress imposed sanctions that blocked the sale. It probably won't unblock them now, even though Turkey critic Bob Menendez stepped down about a week ago as head of the Senate foreign affairs committee due to bribery indictments. Stay tuned. – Leon Taylor, Baltimore tayloralmaty@gmail.com
Notes
For
helpful comments, I thank, without implicating, Nicholas Baigent, Annabel Benson, and Mark Kennet. This update corrects the spelling of the name of the US defense secretary.
References
Kareem Chehayeb and Albert Aji. Drone attack kills 80 and wounds 240 at a packed Syrian military graduation ceremony, official says | AP News
Drone attack on Syria military academy leaves at least 60 dead (france24.com)
Anthony France. Drone attack on military academy kills 80 and wounds 240 in Syria (msn.com)
U.S. Jet Shoots Down Turkish Drone Over Syria - WSJ
U.S.-led
forces reportedly down drone in Syria as Turkey strikes area | Reuters
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