The blues of the birth

 After more than a decade of decline, the demand to attend KIMEP University, prominent in Kazakhstan, is rising.  The number of credit hours has increased for two years. To what extent is this due to demographics? Is the youthful share of Kazakhstan’s population rising, putting the graybeards to shame? 

 Well, sort of.  The birth rate in Kazakhstan fell during the stomach-churning transition to markets in the 1990s. Then it rose with oil prices in the early 2000s.  But it remains below the 1987 point. So Kazakhstan might have to rely on immigration to build up the youthful share of its population if it wants to return to the glorious Eighties (ahem). 

But it’s striking that the birth rate is rising at all in this neck of the world. Even in Russia, well-known for its shrinking population, the birth rate rose with oil prices from 1999 to 2014. Perhaps a rising income can lead to births over short periods? At first, one is tempted to attribute the increase to the policy of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s to stimulate the population by awarding others for births. But the rise since about 1999 is like the one in Kazakhstan. 

Uzbekistan, famous for a high fertility rate, has a falling birth rate stretching back to the Communist Sixties. Its birth rate rises a few years after that in Russia and Kazakhstan. One wonders if this might reflect that Uzbekistan relies on cotton rather than oil for income.

But in most of the world, especially in the United States, rising income and opportunities for women to work seem to have delayed marriage and births. Sooner or later, economics makes its mark. –Leon Taylor, Baltimore tayloralmaty@gmail.com

Notes

All data are from the World Bank.