Iran launches a missile near the Strait of Hormuz. Photo source: Reuters
Iran may be frustrated by the loss of its Hamas agents
in Gaza to the Israeli invasion and so may try to compensate by driving the Americans out of Syria and
Iraq. Central Command, in charge of US military operations in the Middle East, hasn't
responded strongly enough to the 80+ attacks on US posts in the two countries since
October 17 to discernibly reduce the pace of attacks. So attacks may be likely in the next
10 days unless there is a ceasefire in Gaza, when the militias lay off for a while because they claim to be peace-loving.
Christmas, normally a day of rest for fatigued troops on deployment, may
especially tempt the Iranians.
Another possibility: Iran sees that the US media pay more attention to claimed attacks than before, so it may be able to shake up the Americans by reporting these claims, even if bogus, through several of its own media. This would be cheap talk, "cheap" especially for Iran.
Perhaps a more serious problem is that Iran also encourages Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping, probably because this is, from Tehran’s point of view, a distant and thus a relatively safe way to assail Israel and the US. Iran's Defense Minister Mohammad Reza Ashtiani said American military attempts to protect the shipping would face "extraordinary problems." Houthi drones and ballistic missiles, supplied by Iran, perhaps? The US destroyer Mason shot down a Houthi drone, out of self-defense, about a day ago. A few hours ago, a group calling itself the Yemeni Navy reportedly ordered a ship in Bab al-Mandab Strait to head for a Yemen port. The Strait, at the southwestern tip of Yemen, connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden, which leads to the Indian Ocean. The Houthis are rebels against the government of Yemen and control much of the country's western coast, on the Red Sea (see the map below). They have hijacked ships before.
The point is that Iran is doubling efforts to chase the Americans out of Syria and Iraq. This is a good time to ask why the US is there. Is it to hold down Daesh, which lost its caliphate five years ago? This is why the Pentagon says we're there. Daesh is the Arabic acronym for the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, or ISIS.
The real deal
Or is it really to protect Iraq's democracy from Iran, which influences Baghdad through militias that Tehran controls? These militias include Kata'ib Hezbollah ("Hezbollah Brigades"), Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq ("League of the Righteous") -- and Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba, which attempted an attack on a US post in northern Iraq that the US thwarted a few days ago. The State Department labels all three militias as terrorist. Kata'ib Hezbollah and Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq have powerful political parties in Baghdad, Hoquq and Sadiqoun. In general, the Shi'a Coordination Framework is the political coalition that represents Tehran's interests in the Iraqi government. The militias were politically empowered about a year ago by a court decision that effectively enables them to veto government decisions. Just Security, a think tank in Washington, has written about this.
Iran supplies the militias via routes across Syria that cross the eastern border near several US posts, including al-Tanf in southeastern Syria, which is near the road from Damascus to Baghdad. This may be one reason for the spate of drone attacks on these posts that has continued since shortly after the beginning of the Israel-Hamas War.
A May 2019 report by the Syria Study Group, requested by Congress, may shed light on why the US is still in the area. The report concluded that "The premature withdrawal of forces risks enabling [Daesh's] resurgence....Iran has inserted troops, sophisticated weaponry, and proxy forces into Syria....[Syrian President Bashar] Assad is unwilling to compromise and intends to retake all of Syria." All three claims have some validity today, especially the last two. But note that the last two claims go beyond the Pentagon's stated aim of containing Daesh. The real purpose is to contain Iran, which, with Russia, largely control Assad by supplying arms and dollars. The report's authors include the makers of Middle Eastern policy in the Biden administration, as the Cato Institute notes.
Rand Paul, a Republican senator from Kentucky, has called for Congress to consider why the US is in the area...although his proposal of a withdrawal in 30 days is impossible to satisfy, because of logistics and legal agreements. The Senate overwhelmingly rejected Paul's proposal a few days ago because it believed the Pentagon's story that the posts are vital to keep Daesh from rising again. Daesh still exists in cells in northeastern Syria, and it occasionally slaughters troops of the Syrian regime. – Leon Taylor, Baltimore tayloralmaty@gmail.com
Yemen and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The spelling of the Strait romanizes Arabic and varies slightly with the English-language source. Source: Encyclopedia Britannica
Al
Mayadeen. Iran
warns US taskforce coalition to face 'problems' in Red Sea | Al Mayadeen
English December 14, 2023.
Armed Control Location & Event Data Project (ACLED). Mapping territorial control in Yemen. https://acleddata.com/2022/12/07/the-state-of-yemen-q2-2022-q3-2022/
Houthis order Red Sea ship to change course as blasts heard (msn.com) December 14, 2023.
Justin Logan. Why are American troops still in Iraq and Syria? Reason. Why Are American Troops Still in Iraq and Syria? | Cato Institute . November 11, 2023.
Crispin Smith and Michael Knights. Remaking Iraq: How Iranian-Backed Militias Captured the Country (justsecurity.org) March 20, 2023.
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