Surprise

 

                                US destroyer Carney: In harm's way?  Photo: US Navy, Bill Dodge

 

The pace of attacks of Iran-linked militias involving the American military seems to be increasing.  On Saturday, December 16, the US destroyer Carney in the Red Sea intercepted 14 drones from Yemen, undoubtedly from the Houthis rebels, reported Politico. The British destroyer Diamond also shot down a Houthi drone. The Brits reported Monday a possible explosion within two nautical miles of a ship near Yemen, according to Reuters. A nautical mile is a bit longer than a land mile (about 15% longer) and equals one minute of latitude. US sources reported Monday an attack on a Norwegian-owned vessel, M/V Swan Atlantic, that damaged its water tank. It was not clear whether this attack related to the possible explosion reported by the British authorities.

For several weeks, the Houthis have fired drones or ballistic missiles in the direction of either Israel or vessels in the Red Sea.  The Houthis are armed at least partly by Iran; and according to Israeli intelligence, their missile firings are directed by an officer of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards, the branch of the Iranian military dedicated to the 1979 Revolution that vowed to destroy Israel.  The Houthis say they will keep launching missiles until Israel withdraws from the Gaza Strip, where the Israeli Defense Forces have hunted down Hamas terrorists to avoid a repeat of the October 7 Hamas massacre of 1,200 Israelis.

The world’s two largest shippers of containers, MSC and AP Moller-Maersk, have suspended shipping near the Bab al-Mandab Strait that connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and then the Indian Ocean. This strait, at the southwestern tip of Yemen, is critical to Red Sea transport and thus to the Suez Canal, which leads to the Mediterranean. In particular, MSC says it will avoid the Suez Canal, reported Reuters. This route accounts for at least 30% of the world’s container shipping, reported The Financial Times. The fifth largest shipper of containers, the German firm Hapag-Lloyd, is suspending Red Sea shipping until Monday. The Houthis fired on one of its ships Friday.   Maersk Tankers may reroute oil transport around the Cape of Good Hope, adding days to the delivery date. A ship sticking to the Red Sea may have to pay thousands of dollars more in insurance.

In Syria and Iraq, Iran-affiliated militias have fired upon US posts 98 times since October 17, when the Al-Ahli Arabi Baptist Hospital was hit by an explosion in Gaza City, a tragedy initially and, it turned out, falsely blamed on Israeli bombing. An Iranian mouthpiece, Mehr News Agency, claimed that there were two targetings of two US posts Saturday in Deir Ezzour Province in northeast Syria, near gas and oil fields. 

The Pentagon says its posts in northeast Syria are meant to prevent the terrorist group Daesh from seizing vital sources of Syrian fuel as well as of water. The Kurds destroyed the Daesh caliphate in Raqqa, a city in northeast Syria on the Euphrates River, more than five years ago.  But remnants of Daesh still exist in cells among some Arab tribes in northeast Syria, close to Iraq. Daesh is the Arabic acronym for the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS). Al-Sham is the Levant, that is, the eastern Mediterranean region that includes Syria.

The Pentagon’s response to the attacks in the Red Sea, Syria, and Iraq, has been measured. It has never targeted the Houthis missile sites, although it has added three destroyers to the Ford carrier strike group in the Mediterranean. The Pentagon says it is assembling an international patrol for Red Sea shipping. (More targets for the Houthis?)

Overall, the Pentagon says it responds in moderation because it does not want to “widen” the Israel-Hamas War.  Spokesman Air Force Brigadier General Pat Ryder says Defense will decide upon responses “very deliberately, very thoughtfully, again with the broader objectives in mind of protecting our Forces, and making sure that this does not spin out of control into a broader regional conflict.”

Speak loudly and carry a small stick

How does this work? Usually, a bully won’t hit you if you make clear that you will hit back. But if you convince the bully that you won’t put up your fists, he is more likely to haul back for a haymaker. If “widening” the war means inducing more nations to attack Israel, isn’t the Pentagon’s reticence more likely to do this?

Washington has signaled, loudly and clearly, its tolerance of Iran. President Joe Biden is not enforcing sanctions against Iran, looking the other way while it sells oil to China. He permits Iraq and South Korea to pay up to $16 billion that they owe Iran for electricity and oil. Secretary of State Antony Blinken says the money is carefully monitored to ensure that it is spent on humanitarian goods. There is such a thing as fungibility. If Iran saves $100 million on food, it may spend the money instead on mortars. Anyway, the point is that the concession signals to Iran that the US won’t stick to its guns.

Iran has never made bones about its desire to replace the United States as an influence in the Middle East. This would mean chasing the Americans out of Syria and Iraq. There are roughly 900 troops in Syria and 2,500 in Iraq (but bear in mind that these estimates are two years old). One view is that the Iran-linked militias want to harass the Americans without risking a direct attack on Iran, which trains, arms, and directs the militias, partly through its coordination center in Damascus.  The Middle East Institute, a nonpartisan think tank in Washington, has detailed the operations of this center.

Iran plans  

Iran has deployed several militias in Syria. They train partly by fighting with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime in the civil war that broke out in 2011 over demands for democracy. 

One Iran-linked militia is the Saraya al-Khorasani, notes the Middle East Institute. The "Khorasani Brigades" formed in 1995 in Iraq and is utterly loyal to the Iranian Revolution. Since 2013, the militia has trained in al-Hasakah city in northeastern Syria, with Abdulkadir Hamo, a drug dealer who commands a pro-Assad militia. The Brigades, with Lebanon Hezbollah, have recruited perhaps 1,200 in al-Hasakah with promises of lucrative income.  

Another militia directed by Iran is the Task Force of Lebanon Hezbollah, in rural Qamishii of south Syria. The Task Force is run by Hajj Mahdi, whose son the Israelis recently killed in attacks on southern Syria. Mahdi has recruited hundreds of members by offering payments of $100 per month.  This is big money in a country where 90% of the population survives, barely, on $2 or less per day, and where prices are doubling each year. The Task Force has 1,200 members.  

The Dimas Camp near Damascus, and camps near al-Mayadsan city, train the militias to fire drones and missiles. 

Iran also encourages certain Arab tribes in northeastern Syria to rebel against the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces.  The Americans organized the Forces in 2015. This was ostensibly to keep an eye on Daesh. But it was really also to hold the fort against Assad. After 12 years, the dictator's civil war has regained almost all of Syria -- but the northeast region is still holding out, partly because of the Democratic Forces.  Armed by the Americans, the Forces rule the region, not always with much sensitivity. 

Arab tribes populate the region, and they regard the oil, gas, and water as their own. They object to the Kurds' say-so over those resources. This resentment extends to the Americans, for whom the Kurds are acting. The rancor boiled over in August, when the Kurds arrested a corrupt Arab leader for plotting with Assad's regime. Several Arab tribes revolted, and the ensuing battles with the Kurds claimed roughly 100 lives.  The Kurds still rule the region, but barely.

Turkey also indirectly pressures the Americans to leave northeast Syria. The Turkish government believes that the Kurds leading the Democratic Forces are linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party, which seeks autonomy in Turkey and which the United States as well as Turkey regard as terrorist.  The US and the Democratic Forces deny any link to the Kurdistan Workers' Party. But Sunday, Turkey announced its assassination of a leader of the Democratic Forces, Sherwan Hassan. As a NATO ally, the US cannot confront Turkey openly. So it may resolve the matter by leaving the area -- at least leaving Deir Ezzour, where the assassination occurred, an area bitter about the Kurds and thus the Americans. 

Until recently, it appeared that Iran had toned down militia attacks on US bases, to avoid massive retaliation.  But as far as I know, the US has struck back only three times—on October 26, November 9, and November 12—largely by destroying specific arms depots.  The Pentagon calls this a policy of “proportional” response—a familiar term.

The lack of a strong response may have tempted Iran to try larger operations. In recent weeks, troops from the Saraya al-Khorasani militia have moved to Deir Ezzor province, closer to US posts. Arms, including sniper rifles, night-vision goggles, machine guns, and small drones, were flown weekly on Ilyushin aircraft from Damascus to the Qamishii airport, at least until the Israelis bombed the Damascus airport to smithereens. Militia observers keep an eye on the al-Shaddadi post and the Kharab al-Jir post of the Americans in northeastern Syria, according to the Middle East Institute.  Despite a flailing economy, Iran's legislature has just increased the annual Guards budget by about 90% (adjusting for inflation).

Not just another headache

So far, the only American death related to the Iran-linked assaults has been the heart attack of a contractor that followed a false alarm. Of the 66 injuries from the attacks over the past two months, nearly 30 have been diagnosed as traumatic brain injuries. More may follow, since headaches and ringing of the ears can be symptoms of concussion. Permanent brain injuries could account for roughly 1% of the total US force in Syria and Iraq. This figure is both comforting and troubling: Comforting, because it is not larger; and troubling, because of what may come.

Suppose that Iran decided to try to push the Americans out of Syria and Iraq. What would it do? Well, it might instruct the Houthis to step up assaults on the Red Sea. This ties up American military ships at little expense to Tehran, because any American response would be more than 1,400 miles away (see the map below).

                                               Map of the region. Source: Google Maps

It might also plan a surprise attack on all posts in Syria and Iraq at once, to ensure injuries and to shake the confidence of the American public. An attack on Christmas might have PR value. It would humiliate the Americans in the eyes of the world.  It would hit the posts on a day of rest for weary troops on an unexpectedly stressful deployment. And it would spark public demands in the US to bring the troops home. Another date to bear in mind is January 3. The Americans assassinated Qasem Soleimani, commander of the Quds Forces, which oversees foreign military intelligence for Iran, that day in 2020 at the Baghdad airport. And, of course, there is January 1.

A simultaneous attack would also have logistical value for Iran. To avoid sanctions, Iran must smuggle exports out of the country via overland routes. The Israelis are bombing the main airports and port. But US posts are on the most strategic routes, including the highway from Baghdad to Damascus. Iran would find it convenient to push the posts aside. In particular, the Khorasani Brigades planned training centers and an arms depot on the M4 highway, noted the Middle East Institute in April. American attacks on a supply route at al-Qaim crossing, in the vicinity of Deir Ezzour, had created the need for a new supply route to the provinces of Iraq friendly to Iran: Einjar, Rabia, and Tel Afar. 

Attacking the Americans may also give Iran political insurance. At the moment, Tehran exerts a lot of authority in the Iraqi government, because a 2022 Supreme Court decision in Iraq requires two-thirds legislative approval of major decisions. In effect, this gives a veto to Iran-linked militias connected to political parties in Baghdad. The interim Parliamentary Speaker, Mohsen al Mandalawi, belongs to the Shia Coordination Framework, a coalition of pro-Iranian parties. On December 4, Mandalawi met in Tehran with Iran's first vice president, Mohammad Mohsen, who praised Iraq for approving a law that "criminalizes relations with Israel." As Speaker, Mandalawi replaced a Sunni politician, Mohammad al Halbousi, who the Supreme Court removed November 14; Halbousi said the replacement was illegal, reported the Institute for the Study of War. Some observers believe that the Court is trying to create momentum to remove the Americans from Iraq. The US troops are there at Baghdad's invitation. 

Pocketed veto?  

In short, Iran indirectly can veto decisions in Baghdad. But this veto could easily disappear should the Court ever reverse its decision of last year to require a two-thirds majority and return to a simple majority. To enforce its will in Baghdad, Tehran may wish to stock the militias’ arms, again via overland routes, from the Hezbollah depots in Lebanon east to Syria and Iraq.

And there would be political benefits to Iran’s government closer to home. The Iranian public is restive: Tehran enforces its morality code harshly, culminating in the September 2022 death in custody of Mahsa Amini, 22, who was arrested for not wearing her hijab, or headscarf. Her death touched off national demonstrations that the morality cops put down by killing hundreds, according to Amnesty International. Despite Iran’s oil reserves and its willingness to sell more oil than OPEC would permit, nearly a third of Iranians are poor by World Bank standards.  A foreign adventure might divert Iranians from their household worries.

The government is already dominated by Guards fanatics, who comprise the majority of the Cabinet of President Ebrahim Raisi, himself a hardliner. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader who leads the Guards, is 84 and ailing.  He may want to make his mark before it's too late. He does not have an obvious successor.

Endgame 

Today's news brings a troubling close to our story. It reports a shootout between Jordan's border guards and Syrian drug smugglers; several guards were hurt. The Iran-linked militia in Syria have long financed operations by selling Captagon, the poor man's cocaine, in the Middle East and beyond, for billions of dollars...compensating the Assad family with a comfortable pension. The Assads control production and distribution of the highly addictive drug via a branch of the Syrian army directed by Bashar's brother. 

Monday, Jordan's army noted that the drug business had entered a new stage: Instead of just smuggling, the Iran-linked militias are challenging the border openly. Jordan's army stated: "The last few days have seen a spike in these operations that are changing from infiltration attempts and smuggling to armed clashes with the goal of crossing the border by force and targeting border guards." Reportedly, Jordan's air force bombed Sweida province in southwestern Syria Monday night to break up the drug route.  

To sum up: Iran has vowed for decades the destruction of Israel, which requires the removal of the US from the Middle East. In Syria, Iran has long recruited, trained, financed, and directed militias to act in Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon. It also finances more distant attacks, by the Houthis in Yemen. Against this backdrop of careful coordination, Iran is now beefing up militias near the US posts in eastern Syria, and its militias openly push back Jordan's army. What can one conclude?     

Clearly, my suggestion of a Christmas attack is speculation. But forewarned is forearmed – Leon Taylor, Baltimore tayloralmaty@gmail.com  

Notes

For valuable comments, I thank but do not implicate Annabel Benson and Mark Kennet.

 

References

Samir al-Ahmad.  “Carpet weaving” east of the Euphrates: Iranian proxy groups expand their influence in Syria’s Hasakah Province | Middle East Institute (mei.edu) September 12, 2023.

Samir al-Ahmad.  Iranian-backed militia attacks on coalition forces threaten to ignite eastern Syria | Middle East Institute (mei.edu)  November 13, 2023.

Associated Press. An airstrike likely carried out by Jordan's air force targets drug dealers in Syria, reports say | AP News  December 18, 2023

William Christou.  Turkey announces assassination of prominent Syrian Kurdish commander Sherwan Hassan.  The New Arab.  December 17, 2023.

Ashka Jhaveri, Annika Ganzeveld, Kathryn Tyson, Amin Soltani, and Brian Carter. Iran Update, December 4, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)   

Matthew Lee. US extends sanctions waiver allowing Iraq to buy electricity from Iran | AP News  November 14, 2023.

Paul Mcleary.  Houthis launch more attacks in Red Sea as US warships head to region.  Politico.  December 16, 2023.  Houthis launch more attacks in Red Sea as US warships head to region - POLITICO

Mehr News Agency. Drones target two US bases in eastern Syria - Mehr News Agency . December 17, 2023.

Lukanyo Mnyanda, Robert Wright, David Sheppard, and Oliver Telling.  Shipping companies avoid Red Sea after Houthi attacks. Financial Times.  December 15, 2023.

 New America. How Raqqa Became the Capital of ISIS: Raqqa: ISIS Capital (newamerica.org)

Reuters. Jordan army says guards injured, weapons seized in clashes along Syrian border | Reuters December 18, 2023.

Reuters. Possible explosion reported near vessel off Yemen's coast (msn.com) December 18, 2023.

Reuters. Vessel attacked in Red Sea off Yemen coast, U.S. officials blame Houthis (msn.com) December 18, 2023.

Task & Purpose.  5 US troops awarded Purple Hearts since Iraq, Syria attacks began (taskandpurpose.com) December 15, 2023.