Hanging on

 

                               Dima Moussa: Is the opposition ready?  Photo source: The Syrian Observer

One reason why Bashar al-Assad, the dictatorial President of Syria, has remained in power, despite widespread starvation, is the lack of a united opposition.

The Syrian statistics agency says that in a survey of 34,000 households, none reported receiving three meals a day, according to an opposition news site.  The World Food Program of the United Nations estimates that more than half of all Syrians go hungry. True, statistical problems plague such studies. For example, the government study is based on 400 electronic tablets distributed by the government that excludes northern Syria, the largest area of opposition. But there is little doubt of widespread discontent with Assad in the civil war that began as a struggle for democracy against him in 2011. Daily protests against him exploded this summer because the government canceled fuel subsidies.

As far as I can tell, the opposition in Syria, which is angriest in Druze areas of the southwest, such as the city of As-Suwayda, does not coordinate with the exiled opposition. But an up-and-rising leader in exile is Dima Moussa, elected vice-president of the Syrian Opposition Coalition in September. The president is Hadi al-Bahra. Moussa, about 45, of Homs, has a master’s degree in electrical engineering from the University of Illinois at Champaign and a law degree from DePaul University of Chicago. She lives in Turkey and specializes in women’s rights.

Mind you, Assad is in trouble. He is not attending the large summit on global warming, the 28^th Convention of the Parties on the United Nations Framework on Climate Change, COP28, in Expo City Dubai, despite a personal invitation from the United Arab Emirates. Perhaps he was absent because the French have ordered his arrest for the use of chemical weapons killing hundreds in 2013, during the civil war. But although Assad seems in hiding, his elitist supporters have not yet turned against him. One reason may be that they are busy rolling in wealth by selling Captagon, the poor man's cocaine, and by supplying arms to Hamas, the terrorist group that rules the Gaza Strip of Palestine, in the Israel-Hamas War. Hamas is largely controlled by Iran, an ally of Syria. Iran is also becoming more important as a financier of the government, since Damascus could not auction off half of its Treasury bonds this year, in terms of their targeted value, according to Syria Report.

Most Syrians are poor by the World Bank standards for extreme poverty. This is substantially due to the government’s inability to defend its currency, the Syrian pound. Before the civil war, the official exchange rate had been 49 Syrian pounds to the US dollar.  By November 2021, the rate had risen to 2,513 pounds to the dollar. On about July 29, 2023, it leapt to 13,158, an overnight loss of dollar value of 81%. And that's the official exchange rate; the street rate is undoubtedly higher, since people go to the street for dollars that cost too much to buy at the bank. Import prices have soared in Syria, stoking annual inflation rates estimated in hundreds of percentage points. 

Inflation continues despite humanitarian concessions by the US Treasury Department on its sanctions of the Syrian pound. It imposed sanctions in 2004 because Syria condoned terrorism in Lebanon and strengthened them in 2011 because of human rights violations in the civil war.  Treasury notes, with a touch of pride, that the Syrian program is one of its longest-running sanctions. – Leon Taylor, Baltimore tayloralmaty@gmail.com

 

Notes

For helpful comments, I thank but do not implicate Annabel Benson.

Facts are hard to ascertain about Syria.  The government’s statistics are unreliable, and there is little careful quantitative study of the country. Reader, beware.  

    

References

Khaled Yacoub Oweis. As Israel destroys Syria's air defences, Assad 'benefits from war in Gaza' (thenationalnews.com) . December 1, 2023. 

Reuters. France issues arrest warrant for Syria's President Assad - source | Reuters .  November 15, 2023.

Shaam Network.  Official Report: Not One Monitored Family Gets Three Meals a Day in Syria - The Syrian Observer  .  November 28, 2023.

Syrian Observer.  Assad Will Not Participate in COP28 in the UAE - The Syrian Observer  .  December 1, 2023.

Syrian Observer.  Who is Dima Moussa, the Twice SOC Vice-President - The Syrian Observer .  November 30, 2023.

Syria Report.  Syrian Government Treasury Bond Auctions Fall Drastically Short of Targets – Syria Report (syria-report.com) 

United States Department of the Treasury.  Office of Foreign Assets Control. Syria Sanctions Program.  download (treasury.gov)