Nevada's cliffhanger

 

Nevada, the gambler’s haven, paid off big for the Democrats Saturday when Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto edged out Adam Laxalt, a fervent supporter of former President Donald Trump, in her bid for re-election. Her win extends the Democrats’ control of the United States Senate by guaranteeing them at least half of the 100 seats.  Vice President Kamala Harris, president pro tempore of the Senate and a Democrat, can vote to break ties. 

Although Masto’s margin was only half a percentage point, the Associated Press called the race for her since the mail ballots being counted were going her way in a big way.

Her victory was not ordained.  The first Latina in the US Senate, she lacked even the fervent support of likely Hispanic voters, according to The New York Times/Siena College poll of 885 likely voters in the Silver State in late October.  Of Hispanic respondents, only 19% took a “very favorable” view of her; 31%, a “very unfavorable” one. As the table below shows, Laxalt’s numbers were actually better. 

Masto had a more pronounced advantage among women.  Of female respondents, about the same number regarded her very favorably as very unfavorably.  This may not sound like a hit parade; but regarding Laxalt, twice as many women held a dim view as a bright one. Nevada is pro-choice in capital letters—voters in 1990 approved abortion up to 24 weeks—and Laxalt has long opposed abortion although he has not proposed a national ban.  Of poll respondents, 55% preferred a candidate who wanted most or all abortions legal and only 22% one who favored mostly or all illegal.

After the Supreme Court struck down the constitutional right to abortion in June, the Democrats made the voiding of Roe versus Wade their battle cry for the midterms. Apparently, in Nevada, their gamble paid off in gold doubloons.  Strikingly, women polled indicated that they were no more likely to vote in the midterms than men. Perhaps abortion motivates Nevada voters across gender—which would have been a blessing for Masto, because men otherwise disapproved of her (see the table below).

As in the Georgia Senate race, national politics pervaded. Nevada respondents who voted for Democrat Joe Biden in the 2020 Presidential race loved Masto and hated Laxalt; the reverse was true for 2020 Trump voters.  Some analysts suggested that Masto won partly because she held on to voters who disapprove of Biden today, since they disapproved of her only slightly. But The Times pre-election poll does not bear this out.  Yes, of Biden critics, the share of those with a slightly unfavorable view of her was not much larger than the share with a similar view of Laxalt. But the share with a slightly favorable view of Laxalt well exceeded the counterpart view of Masto. If the argument is that Masto won because of support from mild voters, the numbers don’t bear it out.

It is more likely that she won because Biden supporters outvoted Biden critics. In The Times poll, of respondents who approve of Biden now, 60% said they were almost certain to vote.  Among those who disapprove of Biden, the share was just 50%. Get-out-the-vote drives can matter, especially when you have an issue like abortion.

—Leon Taylor, Baltimore  tayloralmaty@gmail.com

 

View	All (D)	All (R)	Male (D)	Male (R)	Female (D)	Female (R)	Hispanic (D)	Hispanic (R)
Very favorable	26%	23%	21%	27%	32%	19%	19%	22%
Very unfavorable	36%	32%	39%	28%	33%	37%	31%	25%

 

 

View	Biden 20 (D)	Biden 20 (R)	Trump 20 (D)	Trump 20 (R)	Biden App (D)	Biden App (R)	Biden Dis (D)	Biden Dis (R)
Very favorable	58%	4%	1%	49%	60%	3%	6%	37%
Very unfavorable	4%	63%	73%	6%	4%	68%	58%	11%

 

 

View	Biden App (D)	Biden App (R)	Biden Dis (D)	Biden Dis (R)
Slightly favorable	24%	7%	6%	23%
Slightly unfavorable	6%	13%	17%	11%

 

All: All respondents

Biden 20: Respondents who voted for Biden in 2020

Trump 20: Respondents who voted for Trump in 2020

Biden App: Respondents who approved of Biden in October

Biden Dis: Respondents who disapproved of Biden in October

D: Democrat (Masto)

R: Republican (Laxalt)

 

Reference

Jonathan Weisman.  2022.  Catherine Cortez Masto, one of Democrats’ most vulnerable senators, eked out a win in Nevada.  The New York Times, November 12.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Walker v. Warnock v. Fate

Talk about close shaves: Tuesday’s Senatorial election in Georgia didn’t leave even a follicle.  Incumbent Raphael Warnock, a Democrat, and Republican Herschel Walker are virtually tied: Warnock with 49.4% of the vote, Walker with 48.5%.  The Libertarian Chase Oliver received 2.1%. Presumably those votes would otherwise have gone to Walker, who would have just eked above 50%.  As it was, no candidate exceeded 50%, triggering a December 6 runoff, sans spoilsport Oliver. 

A choice for sure.  Warnock was the pastor at Martin Luther King’s old church, Ebenezer Baptist, in Atlanta, and he is a moderate a la Biden. Walker won the Heisman Trophy as a running back for the University of Georgia Bulldogs in 1982 and is a cheerleader for former President Donald Trump.

What are their supporters like?  Let’s look at a major media survey, The New York Times/Siena College poll, conducted in October 24-27 of 604 likely voters in Georgia—not a huge sample, but probably the best that we can hope for with a detailed questionnaire like this.  The table below summarizes results for respondents who were “very favorable” or “very unfavorable” about the two candidates: The “D” denotes “Democrat” (Warnock) and the “R” “Republican” (Walker). 

Most respondents had strong opinions about both candidates: 70% were very favorable or very unfavorable towards Pastor Warnock, and 66% towards Walker.  But of the staunch views about Walker, nearly two-thirds were unfavorable, probably because of accusations that he had paid for an abortion by one girlfriend and compelled another to abort. Walker denied that he had paid for abortions in either case, although The Daily Beast reported that it had seen a receipt from the clinic and his check.  He wants to ban all abortions.  Asked which candidate was the “more honest and trustworthy,” 49% of the respondents named Warnock and just 37% Walker.    

Both candidates are African-American, but white respondents were much more critical of Warnock (51%) than of Walker (28%). Ditto for respondents older than 65. But the kids disdain   Walker: Of respondents aged 18 to 29 (in the third part of the table), only 4% had a very favorable view.  

Women were also more likely to be negative about Walker (45%) than about Warnock (35%).  Perhaps this reflects Walker’s adamant stance on abortion. Of all respondents, 49% preferred a candidate who wanted most or all abortions legal and only 27% a candidate who wanted most or all abortions illegal. Indeed, only 9% wanted a candidate who would ban all abortions. 

Curiously, respondents without college degrees had about the same view of both candidates.  But those with bachelors degrees were harder on Walker than on Warnock (in the third part of the table). This may owe something to Walker’s devotion to Trump.

In fact, Presidential politics have an indelible impression on this race.  Of respondents who voted for Biden in 2020, only 2% have a very favorable view of Walker. And of those who voted for Trump, 2% had a very favorable view of Warnock. Congruent patterns hold for respondents who now approve or disapprove of Biden.  These trends, incidentally, also described likely voters in the gubernatorial race between Republican incumbent Brian Kemp and Democrat Stacey Abrams. Kemp won handily, although Trump had vitiated him in the Republican primary.  We’ll see whether Trump’s blessing of Walker is a blessing for him on December 6.  – Leon Taylor, Baltimore tayloralmaty@gmail.com   

 

View	Total (D)	Total (R)	65+ (D)	65+ (R)	White (D)	White (R)	No BA (D)	No BA (R)
Very favorable	34%	25%	31%	45%	23%	33%	31%	30%
Very unfavorable	36%	41%	53%	35%	51%	28%	40%	37%

 

View	Biden 2020 (D)	Biden 2020 (R)	Trump 2020 (D)	Trump 2020 (R)	Biden approve (D)	Biden approve (R)	Biden disapprove (D)	Biden disapprove (R)
Very favorable	68%	2%	2%	53%	71%	4%	7%	41%
Very unfavorable	4%	76%	75%	7%	4%	78%	61%	15%

 

View	Male (D)	Male  (R)	Female (D)	Female (R)	18-29 (D)	18-29 (R)	BA (D)	BA (R)
Very favorable	31%	23%	37%	26%	27%	4%	39%	17%
Very unfavorable	37%	36%	35%	45%	22%	35%	31%	46%

 

Note

In the most recent count, Warnock had 1,941,499 votes; Walker, 1,906,246; and Oliver, 81,175. Had all of Oliver’s votes gone to Walker, he would have finished with 50.6%.

 

References

Marquise Francis.  2022.  Crucial Georgia Senate race between Warnock, Walker heads to December runoff.  Yahoo News, November 9.  Retrieved from yahoo.com

The New York Times.  2022.  Georgia U.S. Senate Election Results.  November 10.  Retrieved from nytimes.com

Christopher Wilson.  Herschel Walker stumbles in attempt to respond to allegation he paid for girlfriend's abortion.  Yahoo News, October 6.  Retrieved from yahoo.com

The Great Divide

 

In a sense, the United States are becoming more united.  In Tuesday’s elections, national politics pervade even local races.

The gubernatorial race in Georgia illustrates the molten politics of the moment, as revealed by The New York Times/Siena College poll conducted in October 24-27 of 604 respondents.  Likely voters are passionate, for or against, about both candidates.  For the Democrat candidate, Stacey Abrams, 34% of the respondents had a very favorable view and 41% a very unfavorable one.  For the Republican incumbent, Brian Kemp, 32% held a very favorable view and 26% a very unfavorable one.  Thus for both candidates a majority of the respondents held extreme views.

Demographics likewise diverge.  Abrams faces stiff resistance from likely voters older than 65, white, or lacking a bachelor’s degree.  They strongly back Kemp.  See the first table below, where (A) denotes the percentage of respondents discussing Abrams and (K) Kemp.

Washington’s footprint is in the second table. Respondents who voted for Joe Biden in 2020 enthuse for Abrams, and Donald Trump voters revile her.  The opposite is true for Kemp, although Trump attacked him in the Republican primary.  (In 2020, Governor Kemp rejected Trump's demand that he call a legislative session to scuttle Biden's victory in the state,) Similar extremes hold for respondents who now approve or disapprove of President Biden.

The results may exaggerate the impact of national politics on the gubernatorial race, since no poll questions concerned statewide issues.  The closest was the respondents’ view of abortion: 49% preferred a candidate who wanted most or all abortions legal and only 27% a candidate who wanted most or all abortions illegal—a sign of hope, perhaps, for Abrams.

 

View	Total (A)	Total (K)	65+ (A)	65+ (K)	White (A)	White (K)	No BA (A)	No BA (K)
Very favorable	34%	32%	26%	52%	19%	44%	29%	35%
Very unfavorable	41%	26%	54%	19%	59%	17%	46%	22%

 

View	Biden 2020 (A)	Biden 2020 (K)	Trump 2020 (A)	Trump 2020 (K)	Biden approve (A)	Biden approve (K)	Biden disapprove (A)	Biden disapprove (K)
Very favorable	72%	4%	1%	64%	69%	5%	8%	52%
Very unfavorable	2%	53%	85%	1%	3%	53%	70%	5%

 The New York Times does not go out of its way to enlighten readers about its polling methods.  Concerning the sample, its description begins: “The survey is a stratified response-rate-adjusted probability-proportionate-to-size sample of the L2 voter file.” It goes downhill from there.

—   Leon Taylor, Baltimore, tayloralmaty@gmail.com

 

Reference

Reid J. Epstein and Ruth Igielnik.  2022.  In close, crucial governor’s races, poll finds sharp split on elections.  The New York Times, November 1.  Retrieved from nytimes.com

Amy Gardner, Colby Itkowitz, and Josh Dawsey.  2020.  Trump calls Georgia governor to pressure him for help overturning Biden’s win in the state.  The Washington Post, December 5.  Retrieved from washingtonpost.com

  

 

The fire this time

 

If Space X impresses you, wait until you see inflation in Kazakhstan.  In October the annual consumer rate hit 18.8%, up by more than one percentage point from the previous month.  If prices rise continuously at that pace, they will double in less than four years.

Consumers and the government are egging on inflation.  So far this year, government spending has raised the money supply at the annual rate of 18.9%, reports the National Bank. (The money supply here is M3, which includes savings accounts as well as cash and debit accounts.)  Retail turnover for the first nine months of 2022 was up 15.7% over the same period last year.  The economy is white hot.  

A Keynesian folk legend says inflation matters less than unemployment, because if you have a job, you can pay high prices. But wages often lag consumer prices.  Unskilled workers have little bargaining power, and they cannot raise their pay to keep pace with inflation as torrid as Kazakhstan’s.  Their purchasing power will plummet. They may have jobs, but not much else.  And as prices keep rising, choking off aggregate demand, pretty soon they won't have jobs, either.

Last week the Bank raised the base annual interest rate, a benchmark for the economy, to 16%, from 14.5%, a huge leap. The Bank is grappling with the public’s sizzling expectations of inflation for the coming year of 16.9%.  When people expect prices to rise, they buy more now, creating inflation immediately.  To lower expectations, the Bank must cool off the economy by raising interest rates, which will discourage spending fueled by loans.  

And the Bank drily notes, “The overwhelming growth of budget expenditures in the current year requires a compensating reaction….”  This statement is remarkable.  When Nursultan Nazarbayev was President, the National Bank was a creature of the government. Indeed, under the Bank's charter, its governor serves at the President's pleasure.  Governor Galymzhan Pirmatov may be exerting a bit of welcome independence.  

The vise-like tightening of monetary policy may bring on recession.  Indeed, it is hard to see any other way that the Bank can lower inflationary expectations in a country that has never seen a rate of inflation below 5% since becoming independent in 1991.  Inflationary expectations have been building for more than two years, and the majority of respondents in a September Bank survey said they expected inflation to hold constant or rise.   But Astana may respond to recession by spending even more, aggravating the Bank’s headache.

The Bank has courage.  Will courage be enough?  –Leon Taylor, Baltimore tayloralmaty@gmail.com       

 

References

National Bank of Kazakhstan.  2022.  Inflation expectations: September 2022.  Report.  nationalbank.kz

National Bank of Kazakhstan.  2022. The base rate was raised to 16%.  Press release, October 26. nationalbank.com