News brief: Drone attacks on US military posts in Syria and Iraq

 

                                       The US base at al-Tanf in Syria in 2018.  Photo: AP, Lolita Baldor
                        

Until now, few major print news media in the United States had reported the drone attacks in the past 30 hours on US military posts in eastern Syria and western Iraq. Minor injuries were reported at al-Tanf in southern Syria and the al-Asad air base in the Anbar province of Iraq. But apparently, al-Tanf had more injuries than has been reported. And the Pentagon confirmed that a US contractor died of a heart attack at al-Asad. 

The "minor injuries" might have included headaches and ringing in the ears, which can indicate brain injury. More than 100 such traumatic injuries were reported in Iranian missile attacks on the al-Asad base in Iraq in 2020 in retaliation for the American assassination of Quds Forces commander Qasem Soleimani, said Reuters. In that incident, what had been characterized as only minor injuries were eventually confirmed as severe concussions.

Roughly 900 US troops are in eastern Syria and 2,500 in Iraq. US air bases in Iraq have taken three drone attacks in 24 hours, reported Reuters.

Five explosions were heard near the Conoco gas field in northern Syria, near Deir Al-Zour, according to the Observatory for Human Rights in Syria based in England, which is usually reliable.

Iran has warned that militia associated with it would retaliate pre-emptively on multiple fronts if the Americans did not stay out of the Israel-Hamas War. US President Joe Biden supports the impending Israeli counter-attack on Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Central Command, in charge of the US military in the Middle East and Central Asia, says American troops guard oil and gas fields in northeastern Syria from a takeover by the Islamic State terrorist group (Daesh is the Arabic acronym). 

The al-Tanf base is on the main road from Baghdad to Damascus, which Iran uses to supply Hezbollah in Lebanon. The base trains recruits to the Syrian Democratic Forces, the Kurdish-led militia that opposes Daesh and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, an ally of Iran.

The reports that I've seen did not mention the number of injuries at al-Tanf or al-Asad. In the 2020 attack on al-Asad, 11 missiles carrying warheads of 1,500 or 2,000 pounds resulted in 200 head injuries, of which 110 were eventually diagnosed as traumatic, according to Wikipedia's detailed account. No missile was intercepted (!). So the number of TBIs per missile was 110/11, or 10. At al-Tanf, one drone got through. I don't know its payload, but the latest Iranian drone, Mahajer-10, has one of 661 pounds, according to Amwaj. If the blast area is proportional to the payload, then one can speculate that the attack on al-Tanf may lead to 3 or 4 TBIs. But the al-Tanf post is small, which may both increase the troop density and decrease the total number of troops. So I would guess that al-Tanf might have 3 to 10 TBIs. This is clearly just a guess.   

A question of interest is why, if there were only a few drones attacking al-Asad and al-Tanf, any got through. In the 2020 al-Asad assault, the US Space Force provided hours of advance warning. How much warning was there this time?      

No one has claimed undisputed responsibility of these drone attacks. A pro-Palestinian militia said it had assaulted US bases in Syria, but the Pentagon said it was still checking. However, the drone attacks are consistent with an Iranian campaign to extend regional influence. The Arab Post reports that on October 15, Quds Forces Commander Ismail Qaani met with Assad in Damascus for two days to set up a war room coordinating operations by Syria, Iran, and Iraq against Israel, supervised by the Revolutionary Guards. The attack on Israel would come from the Golan Heights. I am not aware that this report has been confirmed by other media.

The USS Carney destroyer shot down three cruise missiles and several drones from Houthi rebels, in Yemen, who are backed by Iran. The barrage was in the direction of Israel.  Nearly two dozen drones attacked the destroyer itself. US troops and civilians were not reported hurt.  -- Leon Taylor, Baltimore, tayloralmaty@gmail.com

                                             Source: Stars and Stripes

References

Idrees Ali and Phil Stewart. More than 100 U.S. troops diagnosed with brain injuries from Iran attack | Reuters . February 10, 2020.

Amwaj media. Amid escalating shadow war with Israel, Iran unveils new combat drone | Amwaj.media

Arab Post.  Th eattack will not be from Lebanon...Qaaani's visit to Syria and Iraq reveals details of possible Iranian interference against Israel.  جريدة القدس (alquds.com) . October 18 2023.

Kamal Ayash. Rockets, drones hit Iraqi base housing U.S. forces -security sources | Reuters October 19, 2023.

Tara Copp. Drones attack US military base in Syria, US officials say | AP News . October 19, 2023. 

Farnaz Fassihi. Iran Warns Israel if Attacks Worsen in Gaza - The New York Times (nytimes.com) . October 16, 2023. 

J. P. Lawrence. Drones target US troops in Middle East for second day in a row. Drones target US troops in Middle East for second day in a row | Stars and Stripes 

Daniel L. Magruder. Al-Tanf garrison: America's strategic baggage in the Middle East. Al Tanf garrison: America’s strategic baggage in the Middle East | Brookings . November 20, 2020.

Jared Szuba. US destroyer shoots down cruise missiles by Iran-backed Houthis - Al-Monitor: Independent, trusted coverage of the Middle East . October 19, 2023.

Wikipedia.  Operation Martyr Soleimani - Wikipedia

Nancy A. Youssef and Gordon Lubold.  U.S. Forces in Syria, Iraq and Red Sea Come Under Militant Attack (msn.com) . The Wall Street Journal. October 19, 2023.

The blues of the birth

 After more than a decade of decline, the demand to attend KIMEP University, prominent in Kazakhstan, is rising.  The number of credit hours has increased for two years. To what extent is this due to demographics? Is the youthful share of Kazakhstan’s population rising, putting the graybeards to shame? 

 Well, sort of.  The birth rate in Kazakhstan fell during the stomach-churning transition to markets in the 1990s. Then it rose with oil prices in the early 2000s.  But it remains below the 1987 point. So Kazakhstan might have to rely on immigration to build up the youthful share of its population if it wants to return to the glorious Eighties (ahem). 

But it’s striking that the birth rate is rising at all in this neck of the world. Even in Russia, well-known for its shrinking population, the birth rate rose with oil prices from 1999 to 2014. Perhaps a rising income can lead to births over short periods? At first, one is tempted to attribute the increase to the policy of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s to stimulate the population by awarding others for births. But the rise since about 1999 is like the one in Kazakhstan. 

Uzbekistan, famous for a high fertility rate, has a falling birth rate stretching back to the Communist Sixties. Its birth rate rises a few years after that in Russia and Kazakhstan. One wonders if this might reflect that Uzbekistan relies on cotton rather than oil for income.

But in most of the world, especially in the United States, rising income and opportunities for women to work seem to have delayed marriage and births. Sooner or later, economics makes its mark. –Leon Taylor, Baltimore tayloralmaty@gmail.com

Notes

All data are from the World Bank.

  

 

The shape of things to come, Syrian version

                                      A victim of the drone attack on a Homs academy. Photo source: SANA

 Conflict in Syria may deepen.  Although no one has claimed responsibility for this week's attack on the military academy in Homs, killing at least 90, the most logical candidate is Turkey, I think.  The attackers planned carefully and knew a lot about the academy: They struck it during a graduation exercise. Another logical possibility would be Iran.  But to plan such an attack in a few hours, so that it would coincide with Turkey’s effective declaration of war this week on the Syrian Democratic Forces, is too lucky to believe.  It might be good to know from where the drones flew.

If the attack was Turkish, then its most likely rationale is to pave the way for a ground invasion. The Syrian Army is already unpaid and demoralized, and wiping out its young officers would set it back for years. Ground invasions take months to set up, so one wonders cynically if Turkey rather welcomed the suicide killing as an excuse to get the ball rolling by taking out the Homs academy.  Indeed, note that Turkey attacked less than a week after its chief antagonist in the US Senate, Bob Menendez, was forced out as chair of the foreign affairs committee by a long-brewing corruption scandal.

Turkey’s partial invasions of northern Syria, going back to at least 2019, haven’t stopped violence in Turkey by the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). So Turkey President Recep Tayyip Erdogan may believe that only a permanent buffer zone – something like 30 kilometers deep – could curtail the PKK, by denying the terrorists a safe harbor. That would be the ostensible reason for the invasion.  Of course, northeast Syria also has oilfields.

The question is how the Americans should respond. We already have the specter of one NATO ally shooting down a drone of another, and a ground invasion would almost certainly lead to clashes with US troops; about 900 are in eastern Syria.  I suppose that the Americans and the Turks would come to an advance understanding.  One possibility is that the Americans could withdraw on the agreement that the Turks after invading would contain ISIS. As a true-blue isolationist, former President Donald Trump would do that.  But I’m not sure that Biden would, because I see no strong reason why the Turks would bother to bottle up ISIS for long after they take over the oil fields. I think that the Americans and the Turks might agree to share power, with the Americans confining themselves to fighting ISIS.

Two questions remain. Who would govern Syria? I suppose that Syria President Bashar Assad, or his successor, would have to answer to Iran, Russia, and Turkey. Instant chaos.  The Americans and the Israelis would certainly encourage Turkey to block Iran.

And…what would happen to America’s faithful Kurdish allies, who spearheaded the fight against the Islamic State in Syria? Turkey wouldn’t permit them to stay. Its foreign minister designed assassinations of YPG leaders while heading the spy agency MIT. (As you know, despite American denials, Turkey regarded the YPG, the People’s Protection Units, as the Syrian counterpart of the PKK. A YPG leader ran the Syrian Democratic Forces for the Americans.) Perhaps the Americans could set them up in Kurdistan, but the Iraqis would object to any loss of sovereignty. I think that the Syrian Kurds have the most to lose in this saga. 

My two cents' worth, not discounted for Syrian hyperinflation. -- Leon Taylor, Baltimore, tayloralmaty@gmail.com 

     

 

 

  

News brief: Turkey attacks in Syria

                               A bomb expert at the site of a suicide attack in Ankara October 1. Photo source;                                      Reuters, Cagla Gurdogan
 

At least 15 Turkish drone attacks on northeast Syria killed at least eight today, according to the Syrian Democratic Forces, the Kurdish militia in the area organized by the Americans. Turkey says a ground invasion may be next. 

About 900 US troops are in the area, ostensibly to protect oilfields from the Islamic State, which is still active there albeit in cells. Chances for hostilities between the Turks and the Americans are not trivial. A few hours ago, a US F-16 shot down a Turkish drone a half kilometer from US troops in northern Syria. US defense secretary Lloyd Austin spoke with his Turkish counterpart, Yasar Guler. The Pentagon said it had no indication that Turkey was targeting US troops.  

And a drone attack on a Syrian military academy in Homs province, in central Syria, killed at least 80 and injured at least 240 at a graduation exercise, according to the reliable Syrian Observatory for Human Rights and pro-regime sources. After the attack, Syria shelled villages in Idlib Province, an area of opposition to the Syrian regime.

No one has claimed responsibility for the explosive-packed drones. If they were from Turkey, then this suggests that Turkey is preparing the way for a land invasion and wants to keep Syria from holding its ground. Perhaps Turkey wants to hold northern Syria permanently. It already has troops in northwestern Syria. In any event, a Turkish invasion would inevitably entangle American troops. Yet, I have read no reaction from Central Command, which is in charge of the US Army in Syria; the State Department; or the White House. Caught by surprise?   This might result from the White House's failure to fashion a Syrian policy.

 

This blowup began with a suicide attack in Ankara Monday.  Turkey blamed it on two Syrians. Turkey President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the two had acted for the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK), a nationalist group that both Turkey and the US regard as terrorist. The PKK accepted responsibility for the bombing. Erdogan equates the PKK to another Kurdish group, the People’s Protection Units (YPG) that has been active in northern Syria. Indeed, a YPG leader became the head of the Syrian Democratic Forces. The US maintains that it trained YPG members of the Syrian Democratic Forces on the stipulation that they fight The Islamic State, not Turkey.  But Turkey says the Forces’ sites are fair game for the military.  Indeed, the Turkish foreign minister, Hakan Fidan, had designed drone attacks on YPG leaders when he headed the Turkish intelligence agency MIT.  In April, a Turkish drone almost took out a convoy with SDF leader Mazlum Kobane and two US military officials.

The Americans organized the Syrian Democratic Forces in 2015 to fight the Islamic State and, less visibly, Syrian President Bashar Assad, whose dictatorship has been the object of a civil war since 2011. Since American troops work closely with the SDF, they may well be injured by Turkish attacks on the Forces.

 

The US also has a post at al-Tanf in southeastern Syria, near Iraq and Jordan, which trains Kurds. The implications of the Turkish bombings for al-Tanf aren’t clear, but they can’t be good for the US.

 

One can best understand these swift events in the context of a larger, complex struggle. In the past few days, the Israelis have attacked by air Syrian army bases near the Deir al-Zour province in northeastern Syria. News reports haven’t given a reason for these attacks, but Israel worries about arms shipments to the Hezbollah in Lebanon across Syria, perhaps through the western port at Latakia. The Israelis have also bombed Iranian arms shipments near Damascus, at al-Dimas. 

 

And reports say that the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Ismail Qaani, visited military sites in Syria while Assad was in China begging for money. A Kuwaiti newspaper, Al Jarida, says Qaani discussed shipping old stockpiled arms from Hezbollah to regime-friendly Arab tribes in the northeast of Syria. Then new Russian arms would be shipped back to Hezbollah. The Arabs could then attack the Syrian Democratic Forces, which they resent for occupying their land; and the Russians could make pocket money on sales to Hezbollah. The Americans would be pressured to withdraw. 

 

All this suggests that Iran and Turkey are trying to extend their influence in Syria and don't much care what Assad thinks of it. He is increasingly irrelevant, especially as a popular protest of his regime has grown in the past month. Turkey already has troops in northwestern Syria and wants to keep the Kurdistan Workers’ Party from establishing a foothold on its borders. Iran wants power in the Middle East; Syria is just a stepping stone.  

The Turkish drone attacks undoubtedly will strengthen Congressional opposition to the $20 billion sale of F-16s to Turkey. When Turkey invaded northeastern Syria in 2019, Congress imposed sanctions that blocked the sale. It probably won't unblock them now, even though Turkey critic Bob Menendez stepped down about a week ago as head of the Senate foreign affairs committee due to bribery indictments.  Stay tuned. – Leon Taylor, Baltimore tayloralmaty@gmail.com

 

Notes

For helpful comments, I thank, without implicating, Nicholas Baigent, Annabel Benson, and Mark Kennet.  This update corrects the spelling of the name of the US defense secretary. 

 

References

Kareem Chehayeb and Albert Aji.  Drone attack kills 80 and wounds 240 at a packed Syrian military graduation ceremony, official says | AP News 

 Drone attack on Syria military academy leaves at least 60 dead (france24.com)

Anthony France. Drone attack on military academy kills 80 and wounds 240 in Syria (msn.com)

Turkey's Fidan declares all PKK, YPG facilities in Syria, Iraq 'legitimate targets' - Al-Monitor: Independent, trusted coverage of the Middle East

U.S. Jet Shoots Down Turkish Drone Over Syria - WSJ 

U.S.-led forces reportedly down drone in Syria as Turkey strikes area | Reuters

 

 

 

Is Iran making its move in Syria?

 

                                An Israeli F-35 in southern Israel in 2019. Photo source: Reuters, Amir Cohen

The Israelis have just attacked by air Syrian army bases near the northeastern province Deir al-Zour, according to Reuters. The British news service didn't give a reason for the attack.  But Israel worries about Iranian arms shipments to the Hezbollah terrorists in Lebanon across Syria, perhaps through the port at Latakia in western Syria. About a day ago, the Israelis bombed Iranian arms shipments near Damascus, at al-Dimas. 

 On top of all of this, the head of the Revolutionary Guards, Ismail Qaani, reportedly visited military sites in Syria while President Bashar Assad was in China last month. A Kuwaiti newspaper, Al Jarida, says Qaani discussed shipping old stockpiled arms from Hezbollah to Arab tribes in northeast Syria that are friendly to Assad, then shipping new Russian arms back to Hezbollah. The Arabs could attack the Syrian Democratic Forces, organized by the Americans in the northeast in part to lead the fight against Assad. And the Russians, allies to Assad, could make pocket money on sales to Hezbollah. The Americans would be pressured to withdraw from the Syrian oilfields that they ostensibly seized to keep them out of the hands of the Islamic State, cells of which remain active west of the Euphrates River. 

One infers that Iran is trying cleverly to extend its regional influence via Syria and doesn't much care Assad thinks of it. He is increasingly irrelevant. And Tehran is increasingly wresting control of Damascus away from Moscow.—Leon Taylor, Baltimore tayloralmaty@gmail.com

 

References

Alleged Israeli airstrikes target Iranian sites in eastern Syria - The Jerusalem Post (jpost.com)

Two Syrian soldiers injured in Israeli air attack on army sites in Deir al Zor | Reuters

North, South, and chaos

              Protests in Suwayda. Photo credits: CBS News; Leys El-Cebel/Anadolu Agency/Getty

The tensions this week in the north and south of Syria show off its eternally Byzantine politics.

 

In the southwestern city of Suwayda, hundreds of the Druze continued to call for the overthrow of President Bashar Assad, as they have for more than two weeks. They ripped up posters of his father and preceding president, replacing them with posters of nationalist leaders who revolted early in the 20th century against the French masters of the colony. This protest has the blessing of the spiritual leader of the Druze, Sheikh Hikmat al-Hidjiri. Earlier, some spiritual leaders had been careful not to endorse Assad’s overthrow. 

 

A tiny but educated minority in Syria, most of the Druze had stayed out of the civil war in exchange for exemption from military services. Now they’re in the thick of the nationwide protest. It began with demonstrations against a sudden near-250% increase in fuel prices in August. But it now invokes the calls for democracy that led to the civil war in 2011, during the Arab Spring. Even Assad’s sect, the Alawites, the core of his military and political support, is stirring.    

 

The fighting in northwestern Syria is probably a typical feint.  First, some background.   

 

Turkey wants a buffer in Syria to keep terrorist Kurds from establishing a base for attacks on Turkey and to keep out Syrian migrants. In 2019, the US had agreed to patrol the northwest and eject the Turkish terrorists, the YPG (the People’s Protection Units, if you really want to know). But President Donald Trump got cold feet, his chronic condition in foreign policy.  So the US withdrew to the oilfields in the northeast, allegedly to protect them from the Islamic State. The US Army left the northwest to its Kurdish allies, the Syrian Democratic Forces. These are not associated with the YPG. 

 

But in reality, the northwest is controlled by Turkish troops and by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, whose leader was a power in al-Qaeda but now claims to be a Syrian nationalist.

 

The Syrians in Afrin a northwestern city, are divided between the Turkish troops and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham for religious reasons. (Some regard the HTS as blasphemous because it doesn't adhere to Sharia law.) They have been fighting each other. 

 

The Syrian Democratic Forces attacked these factions...reportedly backed by munitions from Damascus! The Syrian Democratic Forces are supposed to be leading the charge against Damascus. At least 13 died in the fighting.

 

Well, some things are clear. Damascus gains from these attacks, because they push out the Turks and make room for Assad to move in. Iran also gains, because anything that extends Assad's influence also extends Tehran's. So I would wonder if the munitions backing the attack of the Syrian Democratic Forces on the Afrin factions really came from Tehran. I don't think that Damascus has much control over its army these days, aside from the unit controlled by Assad’s brother that is busy making Captogan, the “poor man’s cocaine,” for fun and family profit.

 

The other thing that's clear is that the US is out to lunch. The Syrian Democratic Forces are supposed to work for the Americans, not subvert their interests, as they have been in deadly attacks for two weeks.

 

 I don't know who's making American policy for Syria these days -- State, Defense, or Central Command. But whoever it is, it isn't working. And the White House has washed its hands of the mess.

 

Elsewhere in the region, the US is practicing with Saudi Arabia shooting down drones. And it's talking about a system for all of Central Command, so I guess it worries about potential Iranian drone attacks on the US Army in Syria, not to mention on Israel.

 

Iranian officials were at the Kremlin a few days ago. I presume that they compared notes on the performance of Iranian drones in Ukraine. 

 

The head of Central Command, General Erik Kurilla, told the House in March that Iran was stronger in offensive weapons than five years ago, despite the ongoing talks to relax sanctions on Tehran in exchange for a supposed commitment not to develop nukes.

 

It looks like Iran is filling the power vacuum created by the reduction of US troops in the Middle East to 30,000 to fight China instead. Israel won't be shy to step up to bat, given US aid. (And where are the Republicans?)

 

Now Assad is heading to Beijing. Apparently, as Russia concentrates on its war on Ukraine, China will fill its shoes as Assad’s ally. China certainly has enough dollars to give the Syrian central bank to prop up the vanishing Syrian pound as well as to rebuild much of the country’s infrastructure, which has been destroyed by war and neglect. This all fits China’s strategy to extend its influence in the Middle East, not to mention in Central Asia, at the expense of the Kremlin.

 

Moral of this convoluted story: In Syrian intrigues, there is never a shortage of players. Or pundits!  – Leon Taylor, Baltimore tayloralmaty@gmail.com

Notes

I thank Annabel Benson for useful comments.

References

Agence France-Presse. Anti-government protests take hold in southern Syria - Al-Monitor: Independent, trusted coverage of the Middle East.  August 25, 2023.

Albert Aji and Bassem Mroue. Syria's Assad will visit China as Beijing boosts its reach in the Middle East | AP News.  September 19, 2023.

George Baghdadi and Tucker Reals. Syria protests gain steam, challenging Bashar Assad as he tries to put the civil war behind him - CBS News.  September 20, 2023.

Beatrice Farhat.  Kurdish forces kill 14 pro-Turkey fighters in north Syria attack - Al-Monitor: Independent, trusted coverage of the Middle East.  September 19, 2023.99999

Ghaith al-Sayed. Attack on Turkish-backed opposition fighters in Syria kills 13 of the militants, activists say | AP News. September 18, 2023.

 

  

The Syrian thief

                                 So, when does your flight depart?  Photo source: FIKRA Forum
 

The Syrian Democratic Forces—the Kurds in Syria, fighting the dictatorial President Bashar al-Assad—last week bounced their liaison to the Arab tribes, Abu Khawla, head of the military council of Deir al Zor, the northeast province with most of Syria’s oil and water. The Kurds arrested him for a lot of things, including running drugs. But their real complaint is that he’s working with Assad. Now they've been attacking Khawla's tribal allies. More than 90 have died.

Khawla is a thief. He began his career by stealing motorbikes. But he's our thief: The Americans used him as a surrogate.  So the Kurds are basically turning on the Americans. Undoubtedly the Iranians are fomenting the Kurdish revulsion of Khawla to distract from the growing national rebellion against Assad.  The protest began against Assad’s witless doubling of fuel prices this summer but now also calls for democracy and therefore Assad’s ouster. Thanks to Russian support, Assad had been winning the 12-year civil war. But now he is even on the verge of losing his own ethnic group of Alawites, on the western coast. The Alawites were his loyal military core.   

Khawla’s loss of power bodes ill for the Americans. US troops control the oilfields of northeast Syria, ostensibly to keep them out of the hands of the Islamic State. Fighting Daesh is why a few hundred US soldiers are still in Syria. But the Arab tribes like the Akidat have long complained that US limits on oil exports out of Deir al-Zor province are robbing them—at a time when the Syrian economy is already collapsing, due to Western sanctions and the central bank’s bungling of the supply of Syrian pound, which lost two-thirds of its dollar value overnight. More than 90% of Syrians live on less than $2 per day. It would take little to turn the tribes against the Americans for good. Then there will be real trouble, and not just in the northeast.

What is the White House doing? Nothing. The National Security Council has no Syrian strategy. (The official name is “laissez faire.”) You may recall that it had no Afghanistani strategy, either. But Biden is focused on Ukraine.

So that leaves the US Army to make policy in Syria. General Matthew McFarlane, who headed the fight against Daesh, is out, to the obligatory praises of the head of Central Command, General Erik Kurilla.  Kurilla and several Republican senators visited the Syrian Democratic Forces recently, presumably to try something new. But now the Kurds are acting on their own.  In a press conference last month, McFarlane said the number of Daesh attacks in the region had dropped two-thirds over the year; that the last major attack, on Ghwaryan Prison, was in January 2022.  But observers perceive growing Daesh activity in Syria.  

The Arab tribes in the northwest of Syria were revolting against the Kurds, as they did in the northeast. What was weird was that the Russians bombed the Arabs.  It was if the Russians were siding with the Syrian Democratic Forces, even though the SDF leads the opposition to Assad, Russia's nominal ally. Perhaps the Russians figured that the Americans were organizing through the Arabs an overthrow of Assad, and they wanted to bog down the US to get concessions in Ukraine.

As of today, the Americans seemed finally to have gotten a grip on the situation in Deir al Zor, since the Syrian Democratic Forces and the Arab tribes have stopped fighting.  But the fact remains that the Russians and Iranians outmaneuvered the Americans. I don't doubt that they will try again to eject US troops.

But no matter how skillfully they exploit tensions, Assad will find a way to gum up the works. Damascus now plans to cancel subsidies of food on top of those of fuel. This will drive Syrians into a frenzy. I suspect that Tehran and Moscow can dispense with his services.

 The prospect of starving will drive many Syrians to try to flee. But the European Court of Justice has just backed Greece in deporting a Syrian refugee. The Syrians are bottled up, and an explosion is nigh. Syria remains the textbook example of a country destroyed by fraud, incompetence, and international indifference.

 Possible steps towards a solution:

 (1)   The World Food Program of the United Nations is the world’s largest food donor, unfortunately. It could develop a serious statistical program enabling it to track where to spend money and how it is spent. In exchange, the United States could restore funding of the Program, which has seen its funds fall 40% in the past year. At present, no one quite knows where the Program’s money or food goes in countries like Syria.

(2)   The central bank of Syria could publish monetary data so that investors and donors would know how many dollars it needed to prop up the vanishing Syrian pound…and the extent to which the bank truly controls the money supply.  Hyperinflation makes eating expensive for Syrians.

(3)   The United Nations could compel Damascus to lift barriers to aid in opposition areas and to re-establish subsidies of fuel and food. Of course, in principle, such subsidies are a bad idea, because they lower prices below cost at the margin, ensuring over-consumption. But this is not the time to worry about principles. Syrian families rely on the subsidies to survive.  –Leon Taylor, Baltimore tayloralmaty@gmail.com

 

 Notes

 For useful comments, I thank Annabel Benson and Mark Kennet.

 I learn a lot about Syria from Al Monitor. The New York Times is as clueless as the White House...oddly enough, since The Times broke the story about the Assad family's control of the "poor man's cocaine," Captagon, in 2021. The US media in general, except for CBS News, is out to lunch. At McFarlane’s press conference, the only question from a Western reporter was from the propaganda agency Voice of America.

 

References

Edith M. Lederer. UN says it's forced to cut food aid to millions globally because of a funding crisis | AP News . July 28, 2023.

Special Online Briefing with Major General Matthew McFarlane, Commander, Combined Joint Task Force-Operation Inherent Resolve - United States Department of State

Jared Szuba.  Syria’s Kurds struggle to contain backlash after detaining allied Arab militia leader - Al-Monitor: Independent, trusted coverage of the Middle East . September 2, 2023.